President Uhuru Kenyatta’s backyard will play a key role in determining who will win the presidential polls in the 2022 general election, an analysis of the 2019 population census shows.
Not only is the President’s community the largest in the country with a population of 8.12 million, outnumbering the second largest ethnic group, the Luhya, by over 1.3 million people, it is also home to counties with high numbers of people, most of them youths who will be eligible for registration as voters in the next general election.
Youth voters aged between 18 and 35, whose population will number 15.9 million in the next generation election, will also significantly tilt the scales in the presidential race.
By 2022, Kenyans in the age bracket of 15 to 19 totalling 5.29 million are likely to be registered as new voters after reaching the mandatory minimum age of 18 for registration as voters.
By the next general election, young people born as recently as 2004 and a number of them who are still in secondary school will have reached the minimum age of 18, at which they will be eligible to register as voters.
Together, Gen Z (aged 15 to 19) and millennials (24 to 39) are projected to make over 50 per cent of the votes in the 2022 elections, according to a breakdown of the 2019 population census.
Our analysis of the population census data shows that young people aged between 18 and 35 will number 15.9 million, a figure that is a few millions short of the 19.6 million registered voters in the 2017 elections.
The expected youth voters will outnumber those aged 36 and above by 2.85 million.
According to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), out of the 19.6 million registered voters in the 2017 polls, 10 million were youths (18-35 years) who constituted 50.6 per cent. Secondly, out of the 14,523 cleared to participate in the August 8, 2017 elections, 1,888 were youths below 35 years and who constituted 13 per cent.
According to the 2019 census, the population pyramid shows that a majority of the population are in the youth bracket.
The population pyramid for urban areas indicates that the majority of the population is concentrated between ages 20 and 34 among both sexes.
“The statistics mean that the youth will play a big role in the election and there is need to have more young people in decision-making positions,” says Molo MP Kuria Kimani, who was elected at 28.
However, various commentators are afraid that the youth might not support one of their own.
“The youth are unlikely to support their own. Most likely, as they have done in the past, they will vote for wazees,” says Billy Mijungu, a former chairman of the National Youth Council.
Political commentator Dismas Mokua argues that the Kenyan voter is largely emotional and irrational.
“Their (youth) superiority in numbers will only count if they give tribal considerations a wide berth and place a premium on socio-economic interests and public interests. However, this is unlikely to happen because tribal chiefs have overwhelming influence over youth. The Kenyan youth outsources decision-making faculties to tribal chiefs,” Mr Mokua says.
As of now, youthful MPs constitute about 6.5 per cent of Parliament’s membership.
In both the 11th Parliament and 12th Parliament, young MPs aged 35 and below comprise approximately 10 per cent of members. When this is enhanced to 40 years, the percentage doubles to 20.
Central Kenya vote basket
The vote-rich Mt Kenya bloc, which for the first time since 1992 looks all set to be without a serious presidential contender, will hold the fate of the presidential ambition of Deputy President William Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga, if he decides to go for the top seat.
The Mt Kenya bloc is now up for grabs since the President is serving his final term. But the region can also pick a candidate and nurture him or her for the presidency owing to its high population numbers, which almost translate to high vote numbers.
Possible presidential candidates from the region include Murang’a governor Mwangi wa Iria, former presidential aspirants Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth and Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria.
The nine counties of Mt Kenya comprising Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Embu, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Meru and Tharaka Nithi, as well as Nakuru, which have been Jubilee’s springboards to State House, are now divided, with sections of them vowing support for Mr Ruto and others siding with President Kenyatta.
President Kenyatta, who has retracted from his campaign promises of supporting his deputy for the presidency, has been working with Mr Odinga through the Building Bridges Initiative.
If past voting patterns hold, DP Ruto will need the region’s overwhelming support to replicate Jubilee’s past victories under President Kenyatta with central Kenya’s vote numbers expected to increase after the population of Kikuyus rose by 1.53 million people in the past 10 years.
The region, which accounted for 53 per cent of the 7.4 million votes that Uhuru polled in the October 2017 repeat presidential election, had 5.3 million votes, which is 31 per cent of the 19.6 million voters registered by 2017.
The bloc accounted for more than half (53 per cent) of the 7.4 million votes that Mr Kenyatta polled in the October 2017 repeat presidential election, which was boycotted by Raila.
With his legitimacy questioned, Kenyatta had to rally his region to come out almost to a man, securing nearly four million votes with a turnout that averaged 98 per cent. Rift Valley, Ruto’s stronghold, was second, followed by Nairobi.
The Luhya community, which has maintained its second position as the second largest ethnic group, will also play a significant role in the polls, especially if it’s leading political protagonists, Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, Kakamega governor Wycliffe Oparanya, ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi, Cotu secretary-general Francis Atwoli and Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula take a united stand.
On Saturday, during the BBI rally held in Narok, for the first time in a long time, the major Luhya political protagonists spoke with the same line of thought.
In Ukambani, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua have also declared that they have ended their political rivalry in a rare show of unity.
Further, the Maendeleo Chap Chap party leader said he is ready to shelve his 2022 presidential ambitions should his supporters urge him to do so.
The Maasai community, which has seen its numbers rise to 1.2 million from 840,000 in 2009, joining the list of Kenya’s 10 largest ethnic groups will help swing the 2022 poll on either side of the coin.
In the 2017 general election, despite Narok, Kajiado and Samburu counties being considered as swing-vote regions, or opposition strongholds, the President garnered 53.28 per cent of the votes, beating his main rival, Mr Odinga, who got 46.04 per cent.
In yesterday’s event, the leaders from the Maasai communities rallied behind the BBI initiative and a number of them spoke ill of DP Ruto’s allies who skipped the event.
The wavering of the Maasai community will definitely affect the DP’s fortunes in the Rift Valley, where he enjoys enormous support. Dr Ruto will also be affected by the emergence of Kanu leader Gideon Moi, who is also said to be interested in the presidency.
Other than in his Baringo home area, Mr Moi’s Kanu party enjoys considerable support among the Pokots, who are the largest Kalenjin sub-tribe after the Kipsigis (1.9 million), and Nandi (937,884).
Apart from the Maasai, other communities that are likely to act as swing votes include the Mijikenda, Meru and Turkana.
In the disputed 2017 general election, the Mijikenda supported Mr Odinga while the Meru sided with President Kenyatta.
The census has also seen the confirmation of the Kenyan Somali among the 10 largest ethnic groups in the country.
The Kenyan Somali, who are ranked six behind the Kikuyu, Luhya, Kalenjin, Luo and Kamba have no known presidential candidate for the 2022 general election.
Interestingly, there are more Kenyan Somalis than the Kisii, the ethnic group of Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, who is being flaunted as a potential presidential candidate in the next general election.
Whereas the Kenyan Somali number 2.78 million, the population of the Kisii is at 2.7 million.