It’s said that those whom the gods would destroy they first make mad. Although this may be a “heathen” proverb, it aptly describes the motley Tangatanga crew Deputy President William Ruto has manufactured to wrest power from Jubilee’s Uhuru Kenyatta.
But in a democracy, it’s virtually impossible to take over the state from within in a palace coup. The only constitutional option would be the removal of the president for incapacity or by impeachment through the legislature. This is a nearly impossible task in Kenya. That’s why Mr Ruto and Tangatanga have instead opted for chicanery and skulduggery to capture State House in 2022. But any political observer worth the name knows that this is Russian roulette.
There’s a Rift Valley-size massive confusion and panic within the Tangatanga camp. Mr Ruto and his brigand are caged animals with no escape route. The handshake between Mr Kenyatta and ODM’s Raila Odinga upended Jubilee and scuttled Mr Ruto’s hitherto well-laid succession plans. His allies, led by the erratic Senate Majority Leader Kipchumba Murkomen, seem punch drunk.
The punch-drunk syndrome describes the medical condition of chronic traumatic encephalopathy, or trauma inflicted by constant blows to one’s noggin. Boxers commonly suffer from this sad mental or psychiatric infirmity. It’s a form of PTSD – post-traumatic stress disorder. The disease robs one of one’s full mental faculties and induces incoherence and strategic inability.
There’s a couple of very bad outcomes of being punch drunk. These include paranoia, schizophrenia, and dementia. In politics, these debilitating conditions are killers. That’s why people who have fought oppressive governments often suffer from these ailments.
Punch-drunkenness easily assails individuals who suddenly find themselves politically orphaned and cast in unfamiliar wilderness. The state is akin to a mama’s breast for those used to suckling its cushy embrace. Separate a baby from this and the wailing will be unbearable.
This is the lot of Tangatanga. It’s a political class that’s never been out of government. They can’t fathom being outside the State. Even Mr Ruto’s Twitter tirades are evidence of a condition induced by the Kenyatta-Odinga Handshake.
Tangatanga are damned if they do, and damned if they don’t. DP Ruto is walking a thin tightrope. He doesn’t want to throw down the gauntlet on Mr Kenyatta. Perhaps he’s afraid all the reported skeletons in his closet will come tumbling down, or the deep state will resuscitate them. He recently alluded to that fact in a TV interview. He even talked of dark plots to revive the crimes against humanity case against him at the International Criminal Court. A land case from a decade appears to be on the radar of investigators again. Now, the Rashid Echesa weapons scam and the likely murder of a key witness are haunting him. The more he wiggles, the deeper he sinks.
The matter that put everything asunder is the Building Bridges Initiative, the historic rapprochement between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga.
Until 2018, when the deal was struck, Mr Ruto thought he had lassoed Mr Kenyatta for his 2022 dreams. But the Handshake made those dreams go bump in the night. It’s as though aliens invaded Mr Ruto’s galaxy and stole command from him.
If Tangatanga is the antidote to the Handshake, then we are dealing with amateur hour. Those assembled under its umbrella are political mercenaries, most with an unsavoury past – and present. A number are already peeling away from Mr Ruto. Their loyalty to Mr Ruto is akin to that of Judas Iscariot to Jesus.
Sensing BBI was a political tsunami that might sweep him to the Indian Ocean, Mr Ruto panicked, and then equivocated. He didn’t know whether to fish or cut bait. If he fishes, Mr Odinga would have him for lunch. If he cut bait, he would be a casualty of the tsunami. So he hedged his bet. First, he put one foot in the tent, and the other outside. This is classic splittism if you can’t make up your mind – having your cake and eating it too. Except Mr Odinga, the co-owner of BBI with Mr Kenyatta, isn’t a novice. He can smell a rat all the way in Beijing. He wasn’t fooled by Mr Ruto’s and Mr Murkomen’s Janus faces.
Finally, after pretending to join BBI, Tangatanga hatched an ill-fated rogue BBI rally plan to sabotage the real thing, all the while claiming no ill motives towards the real BBI. But a pig is a pig even if you put red lipstick on it. Now, Mr Ruto has given up and gone full throttle against BBI. Mr Ruto has eventually bared his full fangs against his boss. For him, BBI is the Rubicon, the Door of No Return.
I predict that the Deep State will scatter Tangatanga to the four winds over BBI. Then it will be trench warfare against Mr Ruto and his anti-BBI remnants.