ODM leader Raila Odinga could be planning a radical surgery at Orange House after a series of poll defeats threatens to deal a blow to his political future.
The poll losses have been largely blamed on top party officials and the secretariat.
Sources say the secretariat has remained aloof, unable to tell political realities and plunging the party into avoidable defeats and embarrassment.
Raila’s move – thought to have been in the pipeline for some time now – was jolted by the humiliating defeat in Msambweni, a seat that belonged to the Orange party.
“It is just a matter of time and you will see a near-overhaul of the party. Many are holding critical positions and are not adding value, leading to these messes,” a source said.
According to the source aware of the happenings in the party, the shake-up is expected early next year, in good time before the next elections.
The planned radical surgery could consume some of the big names at the management and the overall leadership, amid concerns that the party’s losing streak is a result of poor strategy in messaging and operations.
On Thursday, the Orange party, however, fought off claims of possible internal turmoil that is consuming its political fortunes following a disastrous performance in Msambweni.
The Star has established that ODM, once the country’s largest party, has been rocked by vicious infighting, suspicion and power games, threatening to blow up its popularity.
But there are concerns by insiders that a tug of war at Orange House might play to the advantage of rivals following a pattern of a poor show in the last two general elections.
However, top party stalwarts are putting a brave face, insisting that unlike other parties, ODM remains the most organised with a massive presence in every corner of the country.
On Thursday, national treasurer Timothy Bosire denied the possibility of a crisis at Orange House, saying the recent loss in Msambweni cannot be the yardstick to assess the party performance over the years.
“ODM remains the most coordinated, structured and vibrant party in the country. The isolated instances do not affect the standing of the party as we will emerge stronger as we are focused on our agenda ahead of the 2022 polls,” he told the Star.
The ex-Kitutu Masaba MP said as democrats, ODM had graciously accepted the Msambweni results and used the outcome to draw lessons that will radically inform the party strategy going forward.
ODM secretary-general Edwin Sifuna told the Star that the party has been implementing task force recommendations to turn around the party’s fortune.
Recently, the party overhauled its National Elections Board and the Disciplinary Committee, key organs in the management of the nominations which the task force report flagged as the major source of vices in the party.
On the Msambweni loss, Sifuna said: “We ran a professional campaign; it worked in Kisumu North and Debaso wards. Unfortunately, the turnout was low in our strongholds in Msambweni. Many of our supporters lost jobs and went upcountry.”
ODM has lost four parliamentary seats in five by-elections since 2017, something that has left the Orange House in turmoil.
ODM lost in Ugenya, Embakasi South, Wajir West and Msambweni, winning only Kibra.
What started as a twin loss in Ugenya and Embakasi South and initially dismissed by the opposition chief as no big deal now is seen to have a pattern.
To demonstrate further the dwindling fortunes of the party, the party numbers in elective positions have continued to be on a free fall in the last two consecutive General Elections.
In 2007 – the first election the party participated in – ODM had commanding numbers, 100 of the 210 MPs in the National Assembly.
The electoral performance has however been on the decline over the years, where in 2013 the party managed only 78 MPs out of 290, losing a record 22 seats.
In 2017, the party dived further managing a paltry 58 of the 290 seats. The number has now reduced to 55.
The fall has also been experienced in other elective positions. For instance, the party’s 16 governors in 2013 reduced to 13 in the last elections.
For woman representatives, the party had 15 out of the total 47 in 2013. But the situation changed for the worse in 2017 when it only had 11 elected on the party ticket.
The same fate befell the Raila-led party in the wards where it lost 49 seats, weakening their grip of the county assemblies in the country.
A total of 382 of 1,450 MCAs were elected on ODM ticket in 2013 compared to 333 in 2017.
The only increase in elective position was recorded in the Senate where ODM rose from 11 senators it had in 2017 to 13 currently.
Compounded by the losses in the recent by-elections, observers are now warning the party could be headed for its sunset days.
Political analyst Javas Bigambo said ODM should rethink its political communication, messaging and fielding their candidates if it has to regain its lost glory.
“ODM by the evidence that is there from 2007 is facing a steady decline with respect to its grip across various levels of representation. ODM remains a strong party nationally but it is losing the ball,” Bigambo said.
ODM in 2018 instituted a task force to carry out a special audit of the party’s performance.
The team chaired by Catherine Mumma found out that the Orange party is what it is because of Raila. Party supporters openly confessed that ODM cannot go a day without the former Prime Minister.
“Ironically, nearly all the interviewees do not believe that the ODM party can survive without the current party leader. The big following is credited to the charismatic party leader,” the report reads in part.
The report further implicates the party’s secretariat and NEC for the bungled party primaries which were described as the biggest issue weakening the party.
Mumma was later appointed to lead the National Elections Board of the party early this year.