A political union between ODM chief Raila Odinga and the One Kenya Alliance ahead of 2022 elections seems to be a hard nut to crack months to the polls.
In his recent public pronouncements, Raila has been hinting at working with the his former partners in but the trio has proved antagonistic.
Political pundits say the chances of Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Moses Wetang’ula (Ford Kenya) teaming up with Raila is getting dimmer by the day.
With barely eight months to the August General Elections, it was expected that the the political bigwigs would have softened their stance for negotiations ahead the high stakes elections.
“They won’t agree. Main reason being that Raila has duped them twice. Two, Raila never kept his side of the bargain on the MoU and the political parties funds,” political commentator Martin Andati said.
Nairobi based political risk analyst Dismus Mokua observes that while Raila and Oka chief has high chances of working together again, rooted mistrust and choice of a presidential candidate could be the stumbling block.
“Nasa was created an anchored in trust. This trust evaporated with the handshake where Nasa principals who are now in Oka got a raw deal. ODM officials treated the principals with contempt and denied them access to political parties fund,” he said.
Political analyst Daniel Orogo concurred and said Oka principals are still healing from the political wound inflicted on them by ODM refusing to share the political parties funds.
“Moses Wetang’ula’s removal from the lucrative position of the minority whip in the Senate still affirms that the divorce between Raila and Oka remains chaotic and messy and with many casualties and therefore the reunion itself is hard nut to crack,” Orogo reckoned.
In a clear demonstration that a reunion of the former colleagues could be a mirage, Kalonzo in an unexpected attack on 19 December told off the ODM leader.
The Wiper leader, speaking at President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Kiambu backyard in the company of other Oka principals told Raila to retire from active politics with the Head of State next year.
“I propose that when President Uhuru will be leaving the office in next year August, he should leave alongside his brother Raila Odinga,” Kalonzo said.
Six months earlier, Kalonzo stated that it would be stupi d of him to back the candidature of Raila for the third time. The Wiper leader was Raila’s running-mate in the last two elections.
“It will be unthinkable to support Mr. Odinga for the third time. I will be the most stupid person to once again support his bid without a measure of reciprocity,” Kalonzo stated.
Kalonzo attack came just a day after Raila graced the burial of Mudavadi’s step mother Mama Rosebella in Sabatia where he hinted at working with the ANC party leader again.
“I know one day our paths with Mudavadi shall cross, so I ask you my supporters leave this issue of Mudavadi to me, we shall have a conclusive talk,” Raila said.
But Mudavadi, just like Kalonzo and Wetang’ula, has been consistently ruling out ever backing Raila for the country’s top seat.
The former Vice President has been citing “mistrust and lack of respect” as key reasons for his stand. He insists that his name will be on the ballot during the forthcoming polls.
He has also been poking holes at Raila’s campaign pledges terming them unrealistic and unachievable in a clear indication that it would require a miracle for them to work together again.
“Kenyans need to be on the lookout for leaders who are pledging anything to win votes,” he once stated in reference to the promise by Raila to give Sh6,000 monthly stipend to needy families.
Nonetheless, Moi enjoys close ties with Raila even as his co-principals in Oka maintain that they will not work with him.
Raila was among key guests at Kanu’s national delegates conference in September and Moi reciprocated by attending the ODM leaders Azimio La Umoja convention at Moi International Sports Centre Kasarani on 10 December.
It is during this meeting that Moi said there is a likelihood of Oka working with the ODM leader in the run-up to 2022 election.
“We are allied forces. Baba’s gain on the ground is our gain. When we gain ground on our side, it is his gain,” he said.
Political observers have indicated that it would be difficult for Raila to beat Deputy President William Ruto without the support of his former Nasa colleagues.
“The fact that for one to be declared to have won the presidency you are required to garner 50 per centt plus one of the total votes cast and a minimum of 25 per cent of votes in at least 24 counties, makes Oka leaders valuable,” stated Charles Munyui, a political commentator.
President Uhuru, who is believed to be backing Raila as his successor, has held held at least two meetings with the ODM leader and Oka bosses in what was seen as an attempt to persuade the three to back the former premier, a matter they have vehemently dismissed.
The Oka bosses have massive political influence in the bases with Mudavadi and Wetang’ula believed to be controlling vote-rich western region while Kalonzo enjoys support of his Ukambani tuff.
Both Mudavadi and Kalonzo have unsuccessfully contested for the presidency once, Mudavadi in 2013 and Kalonzo in 2007.
In 2017, Mudavadi backed Raila under Nasa for the top seat. He was also Raila’s runningmate in the 2007 elections on ODM ticket. Kalonzo on the other hand was Raila’s runningmate in 2013 and 2017 polls.
Mudavadi and Kalonzo allies have also ruled out the possibility of their respective party leaders working with Raila again.
Lugari MP Ayub Savula, who is also ANC deputy party leader, hinted that Mudavadi is building his campaign secretariat in readiness for the polls.
“Musalia is focused on his resolve to run for the top seat. He knows that if he retreats now, he will have effectively ended his political career,” he said.
In September, Kalonzo allies led by Kitui Senator warned Kalonzo against any plans to support Raila, saying he would be a lonely man in such a journey.
“Should our party leader ever make the decision to support the Rt. Hon Raila Amolo Odinga for presidency, we respectfully assure him of two very painful outcomes,” they said in a statement read by Wambua.
Other were Irene Kasalu (Kitui Woman Representative), Dan Maanzo (Makueni), Makai Mulu (Kitui Central), Edith Nyenze (Kitui West) and Danson Mwashako (Wundanyi).
They reiterated that he will not only walk the journey alone, but his Kamba community and other supporters across the country will ‘never forgive him’.
“What we are saying that our people are saying is Kalonzo cannot support Raila again. We can support any other person within OKA but not Raila,” Wambua said. BY THE STAR