I had an interesting conversation with a friend last week over what could happen to the ministers that have chosen to stick with President Uhuru Kenyatta rather than resign and seek a political mandate that guarantees them relevance in the post-Uhuru dispensation.
We speak here of people like Dr Fred Matiang’i of Interior ministry, Mr Ukur Yatani of Finance and Mr Peter Munya of the Agriculture docket.
Mr Yatani and Mr Munya are experienced politicians having been governors before and have solid grassroots support in Marsabit and Meru counties respectively.
Dr Matiang’i, though not a politician, took vital lessons from the late powerful Minister and Kisii kingpin Simeon Nyachae.
Dr Matiang’i served as Mr Nyachae’s close aide during the latter’s presidential run in 2002. He has distinguished himself as a performer and, like him or hate him, you cannot ignore him.
The President knows this and made excellent use of the minister’s talents and capacity, so much so that at one point it was whispered that Dr Matiang’i was the President’s wild card for choice as successor, a whisper loudly repeated by the now joint presidential front runner – Mr Raila Odinga – who openly seemed to endorse the minister, saying he was destined “for bigger things”.
Political whirlwind
In Kenya’s political whirlwind, the reality is that Mr Odinga is Mr Kenyatta’s preferred successor under the Azimio coalition and Dr Matiang’i is still serving as a minister in the critical security docket. My friend wondered why the minister was walking with eyes widely closed into a cul de sac.
I opined that the minister is a highly intelligent operator who has decided to trust his instincts and cast his lot with the President and Mr Odinga.
Although initially encouraged by the confidence the President placed on him, he quickly learnt that his political moment was not now and he has chosen to mothball his presidential ambitions with the expectation that Mr Odinga will win the presidency and find him a role in the next government.
After all, I said, President Kenyatta may be exiting the presidency but he is not quitting the political stage and that through Jubilee, he will play a very significant role in the next government.
Some kind of a “nusu mkate” arrangement like the one we saw during President Mwai Kibaki’s second term when he governed under a coalition with Mr Odinga as his Prime Minister.
Put differently, I was introducing loyalty as a justification for the minister and his colleagues to stick with President Kenyatta.
My pal was incredulous. How can I be so naïve, he wondered. His view is that Dr Matiang’i may have a first-class mind, admirable courage and extraordinary appetite and capacity for work, but he is a political neophyte.
He firmly believes that the President and Mr Odinga will use and dump him very quickly because, unlike Mr Munya and Mr Yatani, Dr Matiang’i has no political base or a tribe-based political vehicle that he can leverage to force his agenda on the Azimio coalition table.
My friend argued that in fact, the Interior minister will provide the perfect blame target in case politics turns violent between now and immediately after elections and will therefore be very easy to discard.
If he was advising Dr Matiang’i, my friend would suggest that the good minister should apply to be a resident scholar at one of those Brookings-like think tanks where he can read and write as he sees through the next five years before coming back to pick up the pieces. It was an interesting view and a legitimate one.
Fiercely independent
But I know that Dr Matiang’i has probably canvassed this thinking and chosen to stick with Uhuru and Odinga. Not naively though.
Although he has his detractors, he has energised a significant portion of the Kisii community and there is a plan that is being followed. The script is the same – Munya has his Meru people coalesced around PNU. Mr Yatani has his Upya party that brings together a significant portion of his tribe. They will use this to force a hearing from Azimio.
Although the Kisiis are fiercely independent and tend to shun the herd psychology, Dr Matiang’i is an interesting prospect around which they can coalesce.
I therefore expect an Omogusii party very soon, and further expect that if Azimio takes power, Dr Matiang’i and his colleagues’ gamble may yet pay off and he won’t be spending cold winters out there any time soon. BY DAILY NATION