The race to succeed Siaya Governor Cornell Rasanga has been reduced to a two-horse race between Senate Minority Leader James Orengo of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and former Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo of United Democratic Movement (UDM).
Mr Orengo is banking on the popularity of the Orange party and support from Azimio presidential candidate Raila Odinga to upstage Mr Gumbo in the August 9 polls.
ODM has a huge following in Siaya, mainly because the party leader Odinga is from the county.
Also in the race are Ms Millicent Oduor of UDA and Mr William Ochieng, an independent candidate.
Advantage over opponents
Having an ODM ticket in the county is a huge advantage over opponents in any elective post.
In 2017, the senator, governor, woman rep and all the parliamentary seats were elected on the party’s ticket. Due to the love that the electorate had for Mr Orengo in 2017, being one of the closest confidants of Mr Odinga, he managed to win his second term as senator without breaking a sweat; no campaigns, no banners or road shows to sell his candidature.
Other than the hegemony that ODM enjoys, Mr Orengo has a rich history of being the longest serving legislator in Siaya County who is still in active politics. He has served for 18 years as an elected Ugenya legislator and 10 years as senator with the advent of devolution.
Together with Dr Oburu Oginga, they have the blessings of the ODM leader to contest the gubernatorial and senatorial positions respectively.
Gumbo’s second stab
Mr Orengo will face off with Mr Gumbo, who will be taking a second stab at the gubernatorial seat after failing to beat Mr Rasanga in the 2017 polls.
In 2017, Mr Rasanga garnered 195,678 votes against Mr Gumbo’s 178,446 votes. Mr Salim Ongonga of Jubilee came a distant third with 1,876 votes while Mr Dan Omoro and Noah Winja got 1,562 and 767 votes respectively.
Notably, out of the six elective constituencies in Siaya, Mr Gumbo carried the day in three constituencies — Gem, Rarieda and Bondo. He hopes to receive the same support in the August polls.
In Gem, he got 35,995 votes against Mr Rasanga’s 28,780 votes. In Bondo, he carried the day by garnering 43,492 against the governor’s 30,790 while in his backyard Rarieda, he garnered 42,416 votes against Mr Rasanga’s 20,752.
Mr Rasanga floored him in Ugenya, with the governor getting 26,052 against Mr Gumbo’s 19,608 votes. In Ugunja, the governor received 25,544 votes against his rival’s 15,936 while in his backyard, he beat Mr Gumbo by sweeping 63,756 against the latter’s 21,145 votes.
Loyalty to Odinga
While some may argue that the gubernatorial race will boil down to the individual track record, Mr Richard Odhiambo, a political analyst, believes the party aspect and loyalty to Mr Odinga will play a major role.
“Siaya is not as cosmopolitan as other counties like Migori. The electorate in Siaya listen to Mr Odinga and they will heed his call to elect Senator Orengo. You can take that to the bank,” Mr Odhiambo says.
He adds: “There is a common phrase in Nyanza that people do what Raila tells them without questioning. When Raila tells you to jump you don’t ask why, you ask how high. So the loyalty that the ODM leader enjoys in Siaya will guarantee Mr Orengo an early victory.”
Mr Odhiambo also notes that it will take blood and sweat for Mr Gumbo to win the hearts of the electorate using the UDM party.
“ODM elected leaders are fighting fringe parties in the Azimio coalition in Luo Nyanza region. For UDM to overcome the hurdles and finally win will be an uphill task,” says Mr Odhiambo.
Two political camps
From the time Mr Gumbo joined the UDM party, there have been two political camps in Siaya; the Pro-Gumbo team comprising majority of the disgruntled ODM aspirants who were left out at the party primaries and those supporting Mr Orengo’s bid.
While the former Rarieda lawmaker is campaigning on the platform of improving education standards and promoting agriculture, Mr Orengo is keen to support small and medium-scale enterprises.
“I will ensure all the small-scale traders have enough space to conduct their businesses without interference. Modern markets and revolving funds will enable the small-scale businesses to thrive in the county and when that is achieved, even the living standards will improve,” said Mr Orengo when he met women traders in Bondo.
He also promised public transport sector players modern bus parks, with guaranteed safety for their vehicles. “I know in Bondo town and many other towns in Siaya you don’t have enough space to park the vehicles. We shall solve this immediately because I understand the role the transport sector plays in the economy. I am out to make Siaya great and worth the name. And together we will achieve it,” Mr Orengo said in Bondo town.
Poverty
Mr Gumbo, however, believes better education, investing in agriculture and sealing the loopholes for siphoning public funds is the panacea for the poverty in Siaya.
“Many people are unable to pay school fees in Alego Usonga yet Yala swamp has a great potential of employing thousands. It is sad that the current governor was in office when Dominion Farms collapsed and he did nothing. Most of the people who lost jobs at Dominion Farms are from his home area of Central Alego,” said Mr Gumbo in Ugenya at the homecoming ceremony of his running mate, Mr David Ohito.
Earlier, Mr Gumbo had picked former police spokesman Charles Owino who withdrew his candidature, forcing him to settle on the former scribe as his deputy. “Withdrawal of Mr Owino has not affected my candidature; he was my running mate and I am still the candidate. I am sure the electorate will still vote for me,” said Mr Gumbo.
ODM is also keen on the clan arithmetic to win the gubernatorial seat.
In the 2013 and 2017 elections, Mr Rasanga got full support from the larger Ugenya block (Ugenya and Ugunja constituencies) and his Alego Usonga constituency backyard to win the two terms.
Mr Orengo has in his basket the Ugenya block and Alego Usonga votes after settling on Mr William Oduol as his running mate. His opponent, however, enjoys massive support in Gem, Rarieda and Bondo constituencies. BY DAILY NATION