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Political party elections can be unpredictable. Often, they preceded by the flexing of political might by contending forces, each attempting to dominate the other, or at least striving to create the perception that they are unrivalled.
This is what was at play last week at the United Democratic Alliance recruitment drive in Mombasa last weekend when supporters of Hassan Omar and Mohammed Ali confronted each other, resulting in a cancellation of the meeting by the party secretary general Cleophas Malala who was to preside over the event.
As a party grows in prominence — as UDA has since Kenya Kwanza formed the government — the intensity of political competition is escalated exponentially, with strategic party positions having some perceived influence in government circles.
The UDA constitution structures each county to have stand-alone officials who form the national delegates, who in turn elect the national officials.
It, therefore, becomes critical for any politician, elected or otherwise, to ensure they have a significant number of their supporters accredited as delegates. The UDA secretariat, according to Malala, printed 800 cards for the Mombasa event, of which 300 went to each of the two factions, while 200 were for the coordinators.
These delegates’ cards were required for accessing the meeting place at the Government Training Institute.
Despite the Hassan Omar-led faction being said to have support of 80 per cent of the party coordinators, the auditorium was filled beyond the number of cards issued with what seemed to be Mohammed Ali-led faction.
With the inevitable clash unfolding, and the explosion of a teargas canisters all over, Malala decided to cancel the meeting, averting any possible injury to members. He also said that there were a large number of fake delegate’s cards in circulation which would render the exercise futile.
But why is there such a heated competition between Omar and Ali’s factions? The answer lies, in part, to the two contestants’ backgrounds.
Omar, the member of the East Africa Legislative Assembly representing Kenya, is best known locally and internationally as a human rights lawyer and a former Mombasa senator, who is unblemished by corruption.
He was not successful in his first bid for Mombasa governor seat nor for his second bid, which he lost by a contestable margin. Omar is a founding member of UDA, forming one of the three initial senators, which includes Bonny Khalwale and Johnstone Muthama.
The two were the face of UDA at inception along with the then Deputy President William Ruto. Omar is also vice chairman of the party.
In the last two months, he has engaged in creating eight companies each with its financial seed capital, to undertake business ventures and wealth creation, for UDA ’s unsuccessful aspirants, ward coordinators, women and youth groups.
Ali, on his part, is the Nyali MP. He made a successful career in television investigative journalism, creating the ‘Jicho Pevu’ programme before he joined politics, where he similarly created a brand for himself as the foremost critic of then Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho.
As luck would have it, the Nyali Constituency Development Fund accounts had been frozen by the courts in 2014, only to be unfrozen when the new MP was elected.
Ali thus came into the office to find a CDF account with more funds than any other MP in Kenya. He put this to good use for his constituents.
In the last eight months, he has officiated the disbursement of bursaries, engaged in school feeding programmes with Governor Abdulswamad Nassir and also participated in County Health For All programme of issuance of NHIF cards.
In the meantime, both Omar and Ali reportedly want to be the front runners for the UDA ticket for the Mombasa gubernatorial race in 2027.
As it is, the foremost determinant in elections outcome for prospective candidates in Mombasa shall be party strength and ticket. To attain this, the factions have set the battle lines to dominate local party decisions, starting with selection of delegates.
It is in part for this reason that Ali has persistently downplayed Omar’s national position as UDA vice chairman. The other consideration is availability of resources.
Unlike at the constituency level, the average gubernatorial elections require eight times the resources a constituency election would require, in terms of financial, social and political capital, because MPs interests are restricted to the constituency and their influence rarely goes beyond that. It follows that Omar’s two bids gives him invaluable experience and advantage in cultivating and accessing all three forms of capital.
The third aspect is regional and ethnic considerations. In Kenya, political ethnicity takes the centre stage. Ali is said to have his origins as a Borana from Isiolo. He grew up in Central Kenya, hence his fluency in Kikuyu language. Omar, on the hand, is a native of Mombasa, born and brought up in Old Town, of the renowned Mazrui family.
In Kenyan politics of ethnicity, the visibility of a governor is such that a region would easily feel irreconcilably disenfranchised, were such a position go to a perceived outsider. This is the problem. Is Ali’s gubernatorial bid destined to suffer the same fate as Awiti Bolo, Ali’s predecessor in Nyali constituency? BY THE STAR