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Good day dear reader,
I am sure by now you have heard of the Kenya Vision 2030 that was mooted in 2008, following the coming into being of the grand coalition government. The two manifestos of ODM and PNU were merged to produce the Vision 2030, after the Economic Recovery & Stimulus Plan 2003, 2007 proved to be very successful.
National planning is an integral part of any country’s development, and most of the countries that have since become successful are as a result of great execution of their well-coordinated plans. They also tend to have stable political parties that help breed the requisite leadership that generate the vision and quality leaders that then move to realise their visions. This is the case with our country as well.
For the last 16 years, we have been trying to implement the 22-year plan, broken into five-year medium term plans based on the priorities of any incoming administration. MTP IV was launched this week by President William Ruto at a colourful event at State House.
The Big 4 Agenda created a good background for the current Bottom Up Economic Transformation Agenda under the blue print commonly known as the Beta Plan. Its implementation came to an end on June 30 last year and was succeeded by the MTP IV (2023-27). This is the last five-year MTP of the V2030, which has three main pillars: social, economic and political. It has 27 key projects to help put it on the ground.
The Big 4 Agenda focused on healthcare, affordable housing, agriculture and food security and MSMEs. These are the same areas of the plan apart from one addition, namely, agriculture, universal healthcare, housing and settlement, MSMEs and the digital superhighway and the creative economy.
However, the plan uses the ‘value chain’ approach in order to eliminate the ‘silo’ mentality for effective planning and coordination, using the Whole of Government Approach. In fact, many countries have failed to develop due to coordination failure. This is also the true essence of market failure.
The plan has six main objectives: to reduce the cost of living, to eradicate hunger, to create 1.2 million new jobs annually, to expand the tax base, to improve foreign exchange balance, and to enhance inclusive growth. Our budgeting and resource allocation is clustered into five sectors: finance and production; infrastructure; social; environment and natural resources; and governance and public administration. All ministries departments and agencies fall under these clusters, including all the 47 counties and constitutional commissions and independent offices.
The MTP IV thus incorporates the carryover from prior planning, the Beta priorities/approach and international obligations and commitments including the UN Agenda 2030 on Sustainable Development and the Africa Agenda 2063. This supra plan will inform the development of Sector Plans, County Integrated Development Plans, Strategic Plans and Annual Performance Contracts for all entities at all levels of government.
Our country has become a Lower Middle Income Country from a Least Developed Country status, upon attaining a Gross Domestic Product per Capita of $1,430 in 2014, as a result of the V2030. This is because the vision aimed at achieving a GDP growth rate of 10 per cent by 2012, and sustains it up to 2030.
However, the average GDP growth rate stood at 4.8 per cent between 2012 and 2022. The inflation rate was targeted to be sustained below five per cent during the Vision period but the average inflation between 2008 and 2022 was 7.7 per cent. Clearly we have missed the targets, but we have also made significant progress.
Some of the enablers of this progress include the construction of 14,000km of roads between 2008 and 2022, households electricity connection increase from 18 per cent in 2007-08 to 74 per cent in 2021-22, and internet connectivity exponential increase from 7.7 per cent in 2007 to 93.93 per cent in 2022. This is why the digital superhighway & the creative economy are critical in our economic take off.
The average contribution of agriculture to GDP from 2008 to 2022 was 23.5 per cent. The plan aims at increasing this to more than 54 per cent both directly and indirectly. Regrettably, the ratio of manufacturing sector to GDP declined from 10.4 per cent in 2007 to 7.8 per cent in 2022 against a target of 15 per cent. This is the reason as to why even though we have constructed many new roads, majority of the products being transported on them aren’t ours but from other countries.
In spite of the above, it’s noteworthy that national poverty level stood at 38.6 per cent in 2021 down from 46 per cent in 2005-06; and life expectancy at birth increased from 58.9 years in 2009 to 66.7 years in 2022. Further, maternal mortality reduced from 414 per 100,000 births in 2007 to 355 per 100,000 births in 2021-22, while transition rates from primary to secondary school increased from 59.6 per cent in 2007 to 78.5 per cent in 2021-22.
In addition, the devolution of power and resources to the 47 counties that were newly created by the 2010 constitution have been a game changer in many parts of the country that have experienced development for the first time since independence.
In our next article, we shall delve further into this subject, and how the MTP IV is being rolled out 17 months on!
As the old adage goes, if you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Government spokesperson