Kajiado County Governor Joseph ole Lenku is my friend. Some of his closest advisers come from Murang’a, hence our friendship. But the 2022 elections made me uncover his hidden trait. He is as cunning as a fox, politically.
I would bump into him in some Nairobi hotel in the lead-up to last year’s elections. He would tell me how we (UDA) would defeat him. He was resigned to an electoral loss because voters with Central Kenya roots, who constitute about 40 per cent of Kajiado and had powered his 2017 win, had all moved to UDA, hence away from him.
“You only need the 40 per cent, plus a few Masaai clans to top up and it’s game over,” he told me incessantly. In the county, the Maasai community makes up almost 51 per cent of the population and others about 10 per cent.
He must have figured out that I am a very close friend of his political nemesis, Katoo ole Metito, the UDA candidate. He expected me to pass this message of resignation to fate to UDA, and indeed I did so.
Therefore, as UDA, we all thought the Kajiado gubernatorial seat was ours for the taking. We thought that, with the Azimio vote already divided — with immediate former governor David Nkendianye vying— the gubernatorial seat was ours.
The Central Kenya swing vote had delivered all county seats plus the presidential vote in Kajiado. In 2007, Mwai Kibaki won in Kajiado. In 2013 and 2017, Uhuru Kenyatta won.
Sophisticated mental game
But come 2022, Ole Lenku won and I was surprised. On researching, I realised Ole Lenku was playing UDA a sophisticated mental game of feigning weakness.
He had given us a fake perception of weakness. That made us not work hard for the seat. He then quietly worked up “Masaai nationalism” and got this bloc of votes almost to the last man.
He won re-election. That’s the day I knew the governor had tricked me into believing he was weak and harmless.
It was Sun Tzu, in his book The Art of War, who urged political actors and generals to always feign weakness.
He said when one is strong, he must appear weak. When one is weak, he must appear strong.
He advised that one should engage people with what they expect; what they are able to discern and that which confirms their projections. It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while they wait for the extraordinary moment — that which they cannot anticipate.
“Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness. Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness. Thereby you can be the director of the opponent’s fate. When the enemy is relaxed, make them toil. When full, starve them. When settled, make them move. When strong, avoid them. If of high morale, depress them. Seem humble to fill them with conceit. If at ease, exhaust them. If united, separate them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise. All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”
This approach to political warfare has a biblical basis. Gideon was chosen by God to fight the Midianites. He wondered why, despite being from a poor and humble family.
God urged him to soldier on. He was then tasked to destroy false gods. This made him unpopular among the Israelites, who almost killed him. He was then made to face the 135,000-strong Medianites’ army with a force of 35,000. Worse still, God urged him to reduce his army to 300. All these must have been disguises to make the other army arrogant. And indeed Gideon won.
Before World War II, Korea was one country. After the war, Korea found itself divided into a southern region occupied by Americans and a Northern area principally controlled by China. But the Chinese did not want a neighbouring country controlled by an enemy.
In the early 1950s, America decided to unify the two regions under the auspices of the United Nations. It came up with an assessment that China did not have a sufficient military presence in the North Korean region. China had not expressed through diplomatic channels its intention to oppose the unification of Korea. China was then a poor third-world country incapable of facing off with the victorious Second World War champion that was America.
Announce a ceasefire
However, the United States was routed by China when it launched a ground offensive. Without its knowledge, China had mobilised 300,000 soldiers into North Korea at night. The soldiers had firm instructions never to move in the daytime and to avoid open fields. The UN had to announce a ceasefire that remains to date.
The above thesis explains why the politician to watch in Kenya is Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
If anybody wishes to go far, he or she needs to be near that man. The media is incessantly portraying him in not-so-good terms. But from where I sit, that is his strength. Gachagua must appear weak for him to go far.
In any event, he did not become Deputy President by happenstance as a first-term MP. There must be something good in him. Gachagua must be applying the Sun Tzu strategy of appearing weak when he is actually very strong and tactical. Those undermining Gachagua are in for a rude shock. I’ll stick with him. And I urge every far-sighted Kenyan to do so. BY DAILY NATION