One of the first things children learn in their formative years, especially when they start school, is the simple calculation, one plus one equals two.
Edgar Otumba was no exception. He also learnt to love mathematics and the world of numbers, a world to which he was introduced by his mother, a teacher of mathematics.
He agrees that mathematics is not everyone’s cup of tea, but his mother nurtured his love for mathematics during the five years she taught him in the classroom, starting in Class Two, and even longer at home. She helped him discover that love.
“I owe all this mathematics to her,” Dr Otumba explained.
However, the statistician never imagined that many years later his calculations would be at the heart of Supreme Court petitions in Kenya and Zimbabwe, used to challenge presidential election results at the top courts in the two countries.
Dr Otumba said he developed what came to be known as the “magic algorithm (Y = 1.2045x + 183546)”, which the opposition in Kenya claimed was introduced into the system of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to manipulate the vote count in favour of then incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2017 election.
The presidential election petition that the National Super Alliance (NASA) presidential candidate Raila Odinga filed at the Supreme Court claimed that the IEBC database had been hacked and the algorithms introduced to manipulate the election results.
The Supreme Court nullified the presidential election results in a historic decision, saying they were marred by irregularities, and ordered fresh polls.
Dr Otumba explained that he came up with the calculation during the tallying of votes in 2017. He was the chief agent of Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo, one of the lawyers who represented Nasa in the petition before the Supreme Court.
Dr Otumba said he noticed that the Rarieda constituency results were being announced at Bomas of Kenya even before the tallying was completed at the local centre. When his team tallied the figures that were being announced at Bomas, they noticed a certain trend. Dr Otumba pursued the matter and, using his statistical knowledge, came up with the algorithm.
“That’s when I realised that election disputes are not about the law. Elections are about figures,” he said.
Statistician Edgar Otumba reads a Saturday Nation newspaper during an interview at the Kisumu International Airport on September 3, 2022.
His claim seems to have spread, attracting the attention of Zimbabwe’s opposition MDC Alliance leader Nelson Chamisa, who contracted him to boost his challenge of the figures that gave President Emmerson Mnangagwa victory in the country’s 2018 presidential election.
Dr Otumba’s role was to justify Mr Chamisa’s claims that the July 31, 2018 elections were rigged. The electoral body said President Mnangagwa won the election with 50.8 per cent of the total vote against Chamisa’s 44.3 per cent. In his affidavit, Chamisa showed instances of double counting.
Asked what he thinks about his role in two presidential election petitions, Dr Otumba said, “I feel happy and proud, yet humbled.”
His connection with the two countries goes beyond the petitions and the petitioners. Dr Otumba’s mother comes from Sakwa in Bondo County – Raila Odinga’s home area, while he is also named after former Zimbabwean politician Edgar Tekere, who had married Raila Odinga’s sister.
Expounding on his history with mathematics and statistics, Dr Otumba said: “One thing that made me a good mathematician was that I learnt the art of teaching my colleagues from when I was young. After classes, I would teach my peers what the teacher had taught. I did that in primary and secondary school, and at [the] university.” This helped him recall what he had been taught in class, “however difficult the concept”.
To him, mathematics is basic.
“Whatever I did in 2017, 2018, and 2022 is basic theory. But how many mathematicians are willing to share that information with the world?” he asked.
Even though Dr Otumba is immensely gifted in statistics, it has not always been smooth sailing for him. There are some concepts in maths that he found difficult. First, as an undergraduate and second, when applying statistics and pure mathematics, a niche that he has specialised in.
“It is not easy. When I was at university, I found the Schrödinger equation tough. This is one equation that takes about three foolscaps to prove. That was a difficult one,” he said. “But we cracked it.”
It takes courage and confidence to share figures with the public, he added. And because of his algorithm, he has been in the public domain three times.
“I believe my figures are correct,” Dr Otumba said. “One plus one is always two, depending on the base. But figures never lie. The figures are straightforward. And anyone who wants to challenge them has to bring alternative figures.”
Dr Otumba is a senior lecturer at Maseno University and has specialised in Stochastic modelling, a branch of mathematics that analyses random probability distribution. His specialisation depends on the past to analyse the probability of having the scenario in the present.
“The past determines the present,” he reiterates.
Describing his home life, he said he is a proud husband, “married to one beautiful wife”, and a father of three children. BY DAILY NATION