Discerning Kenyans will not applaud last Thursday’s news that President Uhuru Kenyatta had instructed Treasury to stabilise the price of petrol at the current levels for 30 days because the move is a desperate political gambit to stave off inevitable criticism that could have been triggered by the huge increase had it been effected.
One would expect that a President into the last month of his presidency should not really care. But Mr Kenyatta is deeply involved in the succession race and any criticism against his government will effectively be a negative against his preferred candidate, who in the past several months has taken on an increasingly active role in government affairs. Some of those that have already been linked to certain ministerial dockets are already virtually “acting” in those positions.
But what the President has done is merely postpone a sharp increase in the acuity of the pain Kenyans are already feeling. It is shocking that petrol is retailing at Sh159 a litre, diesel at Sh140 and kerosene at Sh128. It could have gone up to Sh193.6 for diesel, Sh210 for petrol and Sh181 for kerosene. That cost is inevitable at the end of the 30 days when the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority does its monthly review.
Inflationary pressures
The effect of this will be immediate escalation of the costs of most basic items whose production or transportation is linked to this form of energy. And that is about every basic item used in all households. For food and transport, the impact will be immediate because of the inflationary pressures.
Kenyans are already living the nightmare that they can now only buy 60 per cent of what they could at the same time last year with the same amount of money. This will most certainly be eroded further with the contemplated petrol price increase.
To compound the misery, we are going to be having a lot less money to buy imported basic foodstuff – your flour, sugar, cooking oil, etc. Why? Because we are already deep in the grip of a food crisis. The Famine Early Warning System Network confirms what most people already know – Kenya is experiencing extreme drought conditions and some 3.5 million people are facing severe hunger. More than 360,000 are at emergency levels.
With rains at less than 60 per cent of the 40-year average across most of Kenya, widespread livestock deaths, minimal livestock productivity, very low cropping levels, and sharp declines in purchasing power are creating large food consumption gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition.
The immediate triggers of these hopeless conditions are the usual suspects – rainfall dry spells, below-average crop and livestock production, localised resource-based conflicts, and the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Throw in a fuel crisis linked to the Ukraine war and the narrative is complete. Conveniently, very little is heard about the policy implementation failures, the lop-sided prioritisation of social versus capital investments, incomprehensible wastage of public resources, wanton abuse and destruction of the environment, State capture by cartels, corruption, etc.
The Russia-Ukraine war is a few months in existence and surely cannot explain why the petrol subsidy has existed in Kenya for close to two years, or why we are using close to 70 per cent of all our national earnings to pay domestic and foreign debt. The explanations for this lie firmly in the elements I have alluded to above.
It is the expectation of the public that critical political moments like the ones we are living through are opportunities for those competing for leadership to lay out believable and testable plans on how to make the lives of the citizens better. For Kenyans, it is simple: How will the cost of living be controlled in the short term and the lives of Kenyans be improved in the medium to the longer term?
Tribal persuasion
Winning elections in Kenya is generally about how much money one can part with and how strong the tribal persuasion is in any community. But governing is about ensuring that people are not sleeping hungry and that they have reason to look forward to a better tomorrow. Those listening carefully to the existing undertones will hear worrying murmurs and barely concealed restlessness.
The maverick George Wajackoyah has heard it but is choosing to channel that restlessness into husbanding and selling marijuana, snake venom and hyena testicles. A noteworthy five percent are responding to this insanely contrarian message. It is a warning that the recycled political jargon jamming the airwaves is no longer sexy and solutions lie elsewhere! BY DAILY NATION