Karua effect pushes Raila past Ruto — poll

Azimio presidential candidate Raila Odinga has edged ahead of Deputy President William Ruto, according to a new poll.

Raila’s increased popularity appears linked to two factors: Asimio’s choice of Narc leader Martha Karua as running mate and Ruto’s choice of Righathi Gachagua as deputy.

Both are from Mt Kenya region.

The poll by Infotrak, one of Kenya’s major research firms, indicates Ruto’s popularity has slumped to 38 per cent against Raila’s 42 per cent.

The survey released on Wednesday shows that many of Ruto’s supporters in his Mt Kenya and Rift Valley strongholds became undecided after he picked Mathira MP Gachagua as his running mate.

Most party leaders had overwhelmingly and persistently favoured Tharaka Nithi Senator Kindiki Kithure. Some analysts said Ruto resisted his allies chose his ‘twin’ because of loyalty. 

The DP announced Gachagua as his United Democratic Alliance party deputy on May 15 before the poll was carried out between May 23 and 27. 

The survey was conducted in all 290 constituencies. It sampled 9,000 registered voters and the data was collected through Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews. 

The poll has a confidence level of 95 per cent with a +/-1.033 margin of error. Data was processed and analysed using SPSS 26 statistical software owing to its high accuracy and reliability.

The poll indicates undecided voters in Mt Kenya increased from 14 per cent to 20 per cent, while in North Rift they surged from 13 per cent to 23 per cent.

In Western Kenya, there was an increase of undecided voters from 19 per cent to 23 per cent.

The region had expected Ruto to pick Amani National Congress Musalia Mudavadi as his running mate.

“The running mate question increased the number of undecided voters in Ruto’s strongholds,” Infotrak CEO Angela Ambitho said.

Ruto’s main competitor, Azimio’s Raila Odinga, named Narc Kenya leader  Karua as his running mate a day after Kenya Kwanza named Gachagua.

A poll in May by the same firm found Raila and Ruto tied at 42 per cent. The new poll indicates, however, that Raila has not gained in the last one month. 

The May 8-9 poll incorporated the opinions of 2,400 respondents. Fifteen per cent of voters either refused to answer or said they were yet to decide their favourite.

“It [choice of Gachagua] did not give Raila more votes because the undecided voters did not go anywhere,” Ambitho said.

Just as in previous polls, the new survey indicated the presidential election is likely headed for a run-off.

Unless there is a major political shift that can propel either of the two main candidates, neither can garner 50 per cent plus 1 to secure victory in the first round.

A candidate is declared president-elect if he or she receives more than half of all the votes cast; and at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties.

The undecided voters in other regions were Coast (22 per cent), Northern Kenya (19 per cent), Lower Eastern (21 per cent), South Rift (15 per cent), Nyanza (15 per cent) and Nairobi (18 per cent).

The average number of undecided voters countrywide was 20 per cent. Infotrak estimated the total number at 4.4 million Kenyans.

The poll further projected that Raila would garner 9.3 million votes and Ruto 8.4 million votes, assuming the total number of registered voters is 22 million.

“The cleaned voter register is not yet out so we calculated the numbers using the 2017 register plus the number of newly registered voters,” Ambitho said.

She said the survey was an omnibus poll sponsored by Infotrak and other stakeholders. They were not identified.

An omnibus survey is a method of quantitative marketing research whereby data on a wide variety of subjects is collected during the same interview.

Raila was most popular in his Nyanza backyard where he had an approval rating of 73 per cent.

He had 50 per cent popularity in Nairobi, Coast (49 per cent), Northern Kenya (49 per cent), Western (48 per cent), Lower Eastern (41 per cent), Mt Kenya (27 per cent), South Rift (25 per cent) and North Rift (20 per cent).

Ruto was most popular in South Rift where he had an approval rating of 59 per cent.

He had an approval rating of 12 per cent in Nyanza, Nairobi (30 per cent), Coast (29 per cent), Northern Kenya (32 per cent), Western (28 per cent), Mt Kenya (52 per cent) Lower Eastern (32 per cent) and North Rift (56 per cent).

Going by 2013 and 2017 voting records, Ruto needs more than 90 per cent of the vote in northern Rift Valley and must replicate that in Mt Kenya turnout to turn the tables on Raila. 

President Uhuru Kenyatta’s base in the last two elections, gave the Jubilee ticket an overwhelming vote of between 96 and 99 per cent.

However, Ruto’s support in Rift Valley is fluid as it is reduced by zones in Central and Southern Rift Valley —Nakuru, Kajiado and Narok counties — where Raila has substantial support.

While it was expected the Mt Kenya region would follow the President’s political direction to support Raila, Ruto commands a sizeable following at 52 per cent against Raila’s 27 per cent.

However, Raila’s pick of Karua is expected to cement his support in Mt Kenya as he seeks to wrest the region from Ruto’s grip.

The poll said Raila had 20 counties he would consider his strongholds, while Ruto had 16, with 11 counties being battlegrounds.

It identified Raila’s strongholds as Mombasa, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Makueni, Machakos, Kitui, Busia, Kakamega, Vihiga, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira and Nairobi.

It said Ruto’s strongholds were Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Kericho, Bomet, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Isiolo and Baringo.

Tana River, Kwale, Lamu, Turkana, Samburu, Nakuru, West Pokot, Kajiado, Narok, Bungoma and Trans Nzoia were classified as battlegrounds.

Ruto’s UDA was the most popular party with an approval rating of 35 per cent followed by ODM (34 per cent), Jubilee (four per cent) and Wiper (two per cent).

UDA is most popular in South Rift (57 per cent), North Rift (56 per cent) and Mt Kenya (48 per cent).

ODM is most popular in Nyanza (71 per cent), Western (44 per cent) and Coast (43 per cent).

Key issues of concern among Kenyans were the high cost of living (53 per cent), transport, infrastructure and roads (49 per cent), unemployment (44 per cent) and access to clean water (40 per cent).

The majority of Kenyans (64 per cent) want presidential candidates to incorporate lowering the cost of living in their campaign agendas.

Other issues are unemployment (50 per cent), development (28 per cent) and education (27 per cent).    BY THE STAR