Raila and Ruto race tightens, DP in slight lead - poll

 

The August 9 presidential race appears to hang in the balance as Deputy President William Ruto and Azimio candidate Raila Odinga race towards the finish line.

The last opinion poll showed Raila with a small lead but now the latest Radio Africa poll shows Ruto ahead again with 45.5. percent compared to Raila’s 41.3 percent.

This latest poll used new SMS technology. It was conducted between April 1 and 13, 2022, with 4,497 respondents from all 47 counties weighted to reflect the IEBC register for November 2021.

The margin of error is 4.5 percent and the survey was funded by the Radio Africa Group.

“We are very confident that this polling system is highly accurate as well as being faster than traditional CATI or face-to-face polling,” said Joshua Oluoch, Head of Research at the Radio Africa Group. 

Last July Ruto enjoyed a comfortable lead with 42.7 percent compared to Raila’s 14.2 percent.

But that lead has been steadily whittled away and in March, a Radio Africa poll found Raila slightly in the lead.  

It said Raila had 47.4 percent while Ruto had 43.4 percent as the preferred presidential candidate for the respondents. 

Over the last six months, Raila and the Azimio team have pushed hard to cut Ruto’s lead with increasingly overt support from President Uhuru Kenyatta and the government.

Recent opinion polls indicate that it will be a two-horse race on August 9.

No other candidate has reached double figures in the opinion polls. Only Musalia Mudavadi with 3.0 percent and Mwangi wa Iria with 1.0 percent registered in the Radio Africa poll in April.

All others received just 2.5 percent between them while 6.7 percent of respondents were undecided.

Predictably Ruto is strongest in North Rift with 68.6 percent support and South Rift with 58.9 percent.

But he also performed strongly in Central with 57.6 percent and Upper Eastern with 61.2 percent. Raila dominated Nyanza with 66.5 percent and led Western with 44.5 percent and North Eastern with 53.9 percent.

He heads the key battleground of Coast with 46.1 percent compared to Ruto’s 38.8 percent. In Central, he trailed Ruto with 28.5 percent.

According to the respondents, Peter Kenneth remains the most preferred running mate for Raila with 31.0 percent support, including 29.1 percent in Central.

However, Kalonzo Musyoka has now prominently appeared as the second strongest potential running mate for Raila with 26.0 percent support, including 66.4 percent in Lower Eastern and 26.5 percent in Nairobi.

Next most favoured running mate for Raila was Martha Karua with 24.0 percent overall, including 33.0 percent in Central, Gideon Moi with 5.7 percent, including 12.8 percent in North Rift, and then Kivutha Kibwana with 4.0 percent.

The most preferred running mate for Ruto was Mudavadi with 24.2 percent support, including 43.4 percent in Western.

Rigathi Gachagua followed with 20.2 percent but with just 17.9 percent support in Central. Ndindi Nyoro was third with 11.3 percent but  18.5 percent in Central.

Then came Martha Karua with 10.5 percent and 11.0 percent in Central, and Moses Kuria with 6.5 percent overall support and 8.1 percent in Central.   BY THE STAR