Raila’s big dilemma on campaign messaging

ODM boss Raila Odinga is between a rock and a hard place as fears abound that myriad Jubilee messes could bog down his presidential campaigns.

Once a towering defender of social justice and welfare — often lambasting the Jubilee administration over bad economic policies — the former Prime Minister is in unfamiliar territory.

He is faced with the option of speaking out against the government’s excesses, thus losing the support of the state machinery, or alienating the masses by remaining silent over the skyrocketing cost of living.

Classic damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

Either way, analysts say, the ODM boss is in a Catch-2022 situation. It is feared his traditional support base could slip away due to his dilemma over campaign messaging. 

Deputy President William Ruto, the outsider in his own government, is struggling to adapt to the new ground. He is disassociating himself from Jubilee’s messes — the high cost of living, fuel shortage, indebtedness, unemployment —while heaping blame on his boss, President Uhuru Kenyatta.

The DP has accused his own government of being insensitive to the plight of Kenyans while blaming Raila for aiding the “oppression”.

It would appear Raila and Ruto have switched roles, with the ODM boss becoming Uhuru’s de facto deputy while de jure second in command has been relegated to nothing.

The ODM boss is in a fix as Kenyans cry out over their problems, including extrajudicial killings and corruption.

Has Raila abandoned his key constituency and sacrificed them at the altar of his ambitions? 

“But who said Raila should be the only leader defending the poor? There are many politicians who can also speak about the challenges facing Kenyans,” Shinyalu MP Justus Kizito said.

The MP, a Raila ally in Western Kenya, said  the former PM is fighting for the masses from within, without his past protests and fiery rhetoric.

“Raila is cognisant of the hard economic times and is working with the President to mitigate the suffering at a higher level without making a lot of noise,” he said.

However, Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua, a Ruto ally, sees Raila as a political insulator of Jubilee’s excesses.

“It should concern him an ordinary Kenyan cannot put a single meal on the table,” Gachagua said.

“The problem is the trickle-down economic model that has messed up this country; unfortunately, Raila is a key defender of this model,” he said.

In opinion polls, most Kenyans blame Jubilee for many problems.

The Kenya Kwanza Alliance led by Ruto is delinking their side from Jubilee’s perceived failures.

They have blamed the Raila-Uhuru handshake for muzzling the former Prime Minister.

The ODM leader has abandoned the principles he has been known for in more than 40 years of public life — to sing the Jubilee tune, they say. 

The Tangatanga side says Raila is aware of scheming to lock out Ruto from the presidency through state intimidation. 

Since his March 9, 2018, handshake with Uhuru, Raila, 76, appears transformed from a rabble-rouser to a cautious conformist.

The AU envoy has over the years been hailed as a champion of social welfare. In 2013 and 2017, he led the opposition in unmasking Jubilee administration excesses.

He spoke out against untamed borrowing, massive corruption, wastefulness and plots to rig the presidential election.

Pundits say he now appears trapped by expectations he should push the government, especially over the cost of living.

For most of the handshake era, Kenyans have lamented the loss of the ‘old Raila’ who stood up for them.

The Raila of the past would have fired back after the CoB’s report showing debt repayment has overtaken government’s recurrent expenditure.

The burning question is whether Raila will successfully fight the ‘Jubilee failures tag’ to succeed Uhuru.

Recently at UK’s Chatham House, Raila pledged it would “not be business as usual”, especially in confronting corruption.

The ODM leader decried the weak criminal justice system but promised to deal firmly with graft because he doesn’t have the “baggage”.

“I am coming there with clean hands. People know this. When I was Prime Minister, I suspended two ministers…nobody will be indispensable, even where family members are involved,” Raila said.

The ODM leader has denied he’d be Uhuru’s puppet, while the disgruntled UDA has said Ruto was dislodged by the handshake.

Political Analyst Martin Andati said the ‘Jubilee tag’ hurts the ODM leader’s chances.

“Musalia Mudavadi and Ruto are insisting Raila is a project. Raila has himself said he’ll continue with Uhuru’s legacy.”

The pundit also said Raila “blundered the other day when he said he would make Uhuru an adviser. Even if he wanted to, he shouldn’t say it in public.”

Trouble could be in the offing for Raila “by telling people he’ll maintain the status quo,” Andati said.

Raila stands to inherit the blame for the hard economic times Kenyans have endured in the past 10 years of Jubilee.

“When you tell Kenyans you will continue Uhuru’s legacy, basically you are telling them we will make life hard for you. That affects his numbers,” Andati said.

“I don’t know anybody around him who is thinking of how to navigate. You ride on Uhuru’s positives, utilise state machinery and resources but you run away from the negatives without antagonising him,” he said.

Dr Charles Nyambuga, a  commentator from Maseno University, says the DP’s tactics may deliver a lethal blow to Raila.

“Ruto is running away from that while embracing all the positives of the sitting government. He is playing a dangerous card, transferring the government negatives to Raila,” the communications lecturer said.

Dr Nyambuga says much depends on how Raila “plays the ball thrown into his court by competitors”.

“If he throws it off well — he is trying so far — he’d be safe. But whether that plays well with the people is something else.”

Dr Nyambuga said it would be dangerous for the competition to underestimate the power of the President’s support for Raila.

“It is positive in so many ways. He does not have the challenges of the outsider. 

“It is an advantage to run on the inside lane in African democracy. The so-called system will look at him positively but he still has to sweat it out in the campaigns,” the don said.

ODM insiders said Raila should not be underestimated as a person who would be manipulated to enact the Jubilee script. 

“Raila can separate himself from Jubilee,” Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi told the Star.

“Anybody ascending to power wants to assert himself; it is hard to control them. The day Uhuru leaves State House, he’ll know he has no control of the sitting president,” Wanyonyi said. He is a Nairobi governor hopeful.

The take in ODM circles is that the President being on their side doesn’t mean a continuation of his regime and Jubilee is stronger working with ODM than facing UDA directly.

“Those trying to tie Raila to Jubilee are the same ones talking of Raila being a project,” ODM chairman and Suba South MP John Mbadi said. 

Critics “don’t know what platform Raila is running and campaigning on,” he said.

The ODM chair and Minority leader of the National Assembly dismissed the assertion  Raila would continue Uhuru’s presidency due to his support.

“That the President supports him doesn’t make Raila part of Jubilee or Uhuru. Every Kenyan knows Raila stands for respect for human rights.

“He supports inclusivity and the downtrodden, pro-poor policies, devolution, infrastructural development, environment, economic recovery and take-off,” Mbadi said.

He said their competitors “have nothing good to be identified with and it’s difficult to see any positive ideals”.    BY THE STAR