President Uhuru Kenyatta on Wednesday put forward his case against Deputy William Ruto at a charged meeting in his backyard, signalling a worsening confrontation with DP William Ruto.
Launching a torrent of ad hominem attacks, he said Ruto is not fit to lead the country, rallying his backyard to reject the DP. He said Ruto was to blame for Jubilee’s failures in the region, especially in agriculture.
The President, making it clear his choice of successor is ODM leader Raila Odinga, asked residents to treat Ruto’s promises as “lies and propaganda”.
The speech was mostly about Ruto being poison to Mt Kenya.
The head of state went for the jugular, accusing Ruto of fuelling graft in government and diverting money for development to churches to show his piety and generosity. One of the causes for their falling out.
The President accused his deputy of dishing out proceeds of graft to churches, women, youth groups and boda boda riders, groups the DP has been targeting to fortify the Hustler Nation.
Another reason for their split, he said, was that Ruto was against his March 9, 2018, handshake with Raila.
President Kenyatta painted a picture of a besieged president when he worked with Ruto and a more effective one after the handshake.
In what some pundits have argued was a fast one on Ruto, the President promised to lead a spirited campaign to ensure Raila wins.
He said at Sagana State Lodge – now a theatre of political theatrics — that Ruto may get his support in future, “if he changes his ways”.
“And I ask you, let’s support that Mzee [Raila] and push [back] him,” the President said. “Even this, my young man [Ruto], when he gets back on track, we will give him [the seat after Raila].”
This is coming at a time when his Jubilee Party and Raila’s ODM are going to have National Delegates Conference, which are expected to culminate into a joint meeting where Raila will be endorsed.
After the meetings, the two parties will hold a joint rally at the Kamukunji Grounds in Nairobi on Sunday to popularise Azimio la Umoja – a product of the handshake.
President Kenyatta appears keen on dismantling his deputy, argument by argument, if the revelations in his fiery speech at the Sagana III meeting are anything to go by.
The question, however, is; will the President succeed in his pitch for Raila? What more does he need to do to crush him?
Ruto’s men from Mt Kenya say it would be a mission impossible and that Raila will not gain much from the endorsement.
Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua, a staunch Ruto ally, dared the President to go the ground and make the incendiary accusations to ordinary people, not “a vetted crowd’.
He also dismissed the meeting as of no impact, pointing that the President was also not daring enough to endorse Raila at a wider forum, such as the Bomas of Kenya.
“He was talking in parables. He skirted around the issue. Why couldn’t he just be bold enough and endorse him? Then we invite him to come to the people.
“He should not meet a vetted crowd. You know he was meeting paid people. That is why they were clapping. We invite him to hold a public meeting where there are no vetted people and repeat what he said,” Rigathi said.
Political analysts are equally split on whether the endorsement would be of significant impact on Raila’s succession ambitions.
Former NCIC commissioner Prof Gitile Naituli said the President has no influence as “Central is not Nyanza”.
“We don’t have kings, neither do we follow princes. We follow your success as a leader. As far as Central is concerned, Uhuru has been a failure. He has very little to offer us and I don’t think he will be of any benefit to Raila,” Naituli said.
The don argued that Raila is “mistaken by thinking there is a deep state which can probably illegally make him President.
“That wouldn’t work. If he wants this seat, he must win it fairly. Otherwise, they will create political instability which we don’t need as a country. If he is banking on Uhuru, he is backing the wrong horse. He needs to bank on the citizens of Kenya.”
Prof Naituli said Raila needs to go directly to the people as “some of them even voted for him when Uhuru didn’t like it.
“He is imagining that Uhuru is like him because Nyanza follows him without question. Central is totally different,” the don said.
Prof Peter Kagwanja also said, “Nothing earthshaking has come from Sagana that could stop Ruto from the conquest of Mt Kenya.”
“He (the President) did not spell out any plan of action or any strategy other than making those statements. People know that.”
The Murang’a senator hopeful argued that had the President confirmed some of the accusations against his deputy, “that would have been nice politics.
“He did not say what Ruto has done and what Raila has done. You must create the angel and the devil. The Mt Kenya people did not see the devil in Ruto and the angel in Raila,” Prof Kagwanja explained.
The big question in the endorsement has been advanced that the President is a lame duck and would not have any influence after the nominations.
But Prof Halimu Shauri, a Mombasa-based political pundit, dismissed the notion saying, “Any president doesn’t just sit on that seat without some powers or followers.
“There are some people who are diehard followers and they are in the millions, and that is why he has been president for these 10 years,” he argued.
“You cannot take a sitting president for granted. He has people who made him the president; there are some other people he has touched in one way or another. A sitting president is not just ignored, that is why even a senior politician like Raila would want him to say ‘Raila Tosha’,” Prof Shauri added.
He further said, “The word of a president is not the word of a common person.He has power to rally a big chunk of Mt Kenyain the direction he wants it to go. He is a threat.”
Dr Charles Nyambuga, a political commentator from Maseno University, said, “The President still has a following in Mt Kenya. If he hits the campaign trail and talks directly to opinion leaders, he will make a statement.”
Martin Andati, said the President will get some of the people who believe in him, especially the old generation, to rally behind Raila.
“Rallying the troops, clear messaging, and deployment of his ground troops will ultimately work for him but has to be done consistently,” he said.
Also put forth in the argument is whether Ruto’s popularity would translate into votes, with observers pointing out there could be surprises.
You can be popular and lose. How many times has Raila been popular but lost? Supporting somebody is different from voting for somebody,” Prof Shauri said.
Recently released opinion polls showed DP Ruto’s popularity in Mt Kenya has been falling while Raila is steadily gaining, attributed to Uhuru’s open endorsement.
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