With the release of the voter registration figures for the forthcoming elections, it was to be expected that those who delight in such things would go on a speculation and conjecture spree while attempting to interpret the data to suit their political leanings.
Of course, the figures had more to do with new voters, those registering for the first time because they had come of age, or those who had belatedly realised they were losing a great opportunity to boot out the politicians they didn’t like.
Immediately, many social media “analysts” (tweeps, bloggers and suchlike) seized the moment to declare their preferred presidential candidates the obvious first-round winners, making for lively debates which were, on the main, based on specious voodoo arithmetic and wild flights of fancy instead of substantive logic. What was amusing was that using the same set of data, the keyboard speculators arrived at diametrically opposed conclusions about the probable outcome.
To those observers who have gone through numerous general elections, some of the conclusions had all the elements of past opinion polls that rarely ever came true.
Indeed, one can safely say that the conclusions were a result of careless extrapolation of hard data and wishful thinking. However, this is acceptable in a democracy for it is quite harmless except where some people take such views seriously enough to want to sort out issues through violence.
Registered voters
Anyway, to cut the matter short, this country has 22 million-plus registered voters out of a population of 53 million, and if they all voted, we would be doing quite well. However, a significant number do not bother to vote at all.
For instance, even during the 2013 elections when voters were really fired up because they wanted to cock a snook at the International Criminal Court, which had hauled their favourite presidential contenders to the Hague, while 14.3 million registered to vote, fewer than 12 million did.
Five years later, in 2017, while the number of registered voters had gone up to 19.6 million, only 15 million cast their ballots, showing a marked lassitude among them. If this pattern persists, there is a chance that of the 22 million registered this year, not more than 18 million will vote – probably a lot fewer than this, judging from the demonstrable apathy among all sections of the voting population. Apparently, there is little exciting about the people running for the highest office.
Unifying fervour
Indeed, there seems to be a marked lack of a unifying fervour among voters, whose spirits have been dampened by the two-year coronavirus pandemic and a tanking economy.
Although there are those who may wish to deny this fact, no amount of spin can wish it away. Many Kenyans are unhappy and they are taking it out on the current leadership.
They want change, but they do not know in what form or who will best bring it about. They are despondent, yet they detect no beacon of light on the horizon.
Why would they put their trust in the same clique of leaders they have known all their lives or listen to the same speeches they have been hearing over and over again, each time couched in different catchy banalities to make the humdrum messaging appealing? The trouble seems to be that without an alternative voice, some have concluded they have no choice but to listen to the demagogues if only to lessen their boredom.
Which brings me to the issue at hand: Young people have been extremely reluctant to register for the vote this season. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) wanted to list six million new voters, especially youths who had just attained 18 years of age.
But even after lowering the target figure and extending the registration period, it only managed a paltry 2.6 million. Even with its peerless firefighting skills, the IEBC has clearly been stumped. What’s the possible explanation for this apathy?
Quite simply, Kenyan youths could not be bothered to register, probably because they see nothing in it for them.
And yet, at every campaign rally, they are always the majority, giving each of the formations vying for the presidency extremely phony bragging rights.
Massive followers
While everyone is being bamboozled by the optics of massive followers, it appears the youths are attending those rallies for another reason, most likely the crisp currency notes which they gladly pocket without any intention of voting whatsoever.
This should worry those intent on buying this election, for the real numbers do not lie. The country’s youth (35 years and below) comprise a full 75 per cent of the population. If a huge number of them are merely content to attend one rally, shout sipangwingwi, receive their dole, and move on to the next rally organised by a rival where they will get another bribe, they really cannot be faulted.
At least they will go home with enough money for cheap alcohol to last them until the next round of rallies.
And yet we keep telling this hopeless lot that the future of this country is in their hands! BY DAILY NATION