One of the best anecdotes from ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi’s autobiography, Soaring above the Storms of Passion, is the narration of events leading up to the 2013 election, when he was briefly ‘the deep state’s’ preferred presidential candidate.
In the book, Mudavadi expresses bitter disappointment that then fellow Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto came to his house promising support, which was inexplicably withdrawn only a short while later.
He had only recently abandoned ODM and its leader Raila Odinga, after people associated with State House apparently registered a party for him, and made promises that the hand of the state would be extended to clear his way to the presidency.
In words and deeds, everything from that period shows that Mudavadi was truly excited to be a state project, to borrow a phrase the Kenya Kwanza Alliance has now made famous.
As soon as that small matter of betrayal was done, Uhuru and Ruto formed a joint ticket which, for all intents and purposes, replaced Mudavadi as the state project. There is nothing so far to show that Ruto hated being part of a state project in two straight elections.
In fact, barring Uhuru’s change of mind later, the favourite refrain had been “yangu kumi, yako kumi”, a political promise by President Kenyatta to extend the state project into 20 full years.
Evidence suggests that wherever this promise was made, Ruto smiled like a young bride, only too happy to revel in the glory assured by the instruments of the state’s transitional capacities. Because this is Kenyan politics, do not be too surprised that Mudavadi and Ruto now lead the chorus against an alleged state project.
The supposed aversion for state-friendly candidates in general elections usually stems from perceived ills committed by an outgoing regime, and the belief that a friendly successor will perpetuate such ills.
In 2002, Uhuru Kenyatta carried the burdens of the long, dictatorial and destructive Kanu rule on his young shoulders. The electorate thoroughly drubbed him for his troubles. But if the same thinking were to be deployed in the 2022 election, in a two-horse race where one of the leading candidates is the 10-year Deputy President of the outgoing regime, I fail to see how the opposition leader would carry the baggage of the state that the DP can’t.
Indeed, as late as early this week, DP Ruto was categorically telling the President that he has been half of Jubilee and cannot be denied the fame that comes with its perceived successes over the 10 years of its rule. He fell just short of declaring he would carry the infamy of the failures and faults too.
Benefits of being a ‘state project’
It doesn’t end there. Since becoming a ‘state project’ he has received a rousing welcome in areas hitherto hostile to him, and which are reputed to be granaries of votes in election season. It is not an exaggeration to say that being a state project actually expands Raila’s support base. I do not know one person who would not be happy to be where the ODM boss is right now
Suffice it to say there is no logic where Raila can be disadvantaged as a ‘state project’ where Ruto, who has been ‘half’ of the state, is also running.
Raila has run for President four times. There is near unanimity that in at least one of them, he was robbed of clear victory. Because he is a populist politician with fanatical following and utmost loyalty in his core bases, there is also no compelling reason to believe he can lose this core support for being friendly to the government.
If anything, there is strong belief in his vote bases that the ingredient missing in his impressive electoral scores has been the hand of the state. Simply put, Raila with the backing of the state is even more appealing to his support base, with the constant worry of the instruments of state set against him now removed.
It doesn’t end there. Since becoming a ‘state project’ he has received a rousing welcome in areas hitherto hostile to him, and which are reputed to be granaries of votes in election season. It is not an exaggeration to say that being a state project actually expands Raila’s support base. I do not know one person who would not be happy to be where the ODM boss is right now.
The trouble for the opponents of the former Prime Minister, especially in the UDA formation, is that they underestimate both the capabilities of the state and President Kenyatta as a person. Ordinarily, if the state was backing an unpopular candidate, or the regime itself was so unpopular as to compromise the chances of any allied candidate, there would be trouble in waiting for such a candidate.
But Raila’s showing in the last three elections in which he was a candidate shows a hugely popular politician, totally insulated from being bogged down by perceived failures of the outgoing regime. At any rate, it is the same instruments of state now opening the arms to embrace him, which were used to paint him black in regions where he has now gained a footing. Why would this tag then be a negative thing?
The only time in the multiparty era when the eventual winner of a presidential election was not a state project was Mwai Kibaki’s victory in the Narc-Rainbow sweep of 2002. Without exception, all the other winners had run with the incumbent government clearing the hurdles for them to victory.
Many of those now vilifying Raila as a state project have in fact been beneficiaries of the smooth paths made possible by the incumbent regimes in those elections. But it is also a fact that none of those state projects were as popular as Raila is.
Rather than being the rank outsider staking his bets on the state’s agencies of intelligence, official violence and the security network, the ODM chief now has to combine his popularity with all the stability assured by such enviable power. Anyone watching his rallies in the Mt Kenya region, featuring local governors and legislators, would be foolish to imagine that huge array of talent and connections means nothing.
As if to offer unsolicited help to Raila in this area, Ruto’s verbal assault on the President, seemingly set to get worse as the weeks and months pass, will solicit frowns even among his core supporters in the Mt Kenya region.
The Kenyatta name is still revered in the region, and it is inconceivable that someone whose electoral victory depends so critically on scoring very highly among the Kikuyu masses, can unwittingly jump into a slur contest with the President, who is not running and therefore doesn’t have to worry about losing any key demographics ahead of the August polls.
Expect the President to descend on Central Kenya speaking in the vernacular and cutting his deputy down to size, as he finally endorses Raila openly. Remind me, what exactly would be the disadvantage here if you were Raila, being tagged a state project? Methinks none! BY THE STAR