President Kenyatta is expected to soon embark on an extensive tour of his political bedrock. But it should not be a big shock if he finds that the mountain has moved.
The President is going on the hustings in an effort to reclaim his political home base in the wider central/Mount Kenya region that is seen to have largely abandoned him for his estranged deputy William Ruto. He also urgently needs to rescue the governing Jubilee Party from further disintegration as the DP deserts with half the outfit to his nascent United Democratic Alliance (UDA) while the majority of those remaining scamper towards alternative parties for political survival.
And, finally, President Kenyatta will be out for the first time directly campaigning for his preferred successor, the ODM party leader and his erstwhile opposition foe, Raila Odinga.
For an outgoing President who is firmly in lame duck territory, the mountain tour is a desperate, high-risk gambit. If it bears fruit, it could cement his pivotal role in influencing the August 9 presidential and General Election and determining the next occupant of State House. If it also succeeds in securing his continuing place in central Kenya’s political and community leadership, the tour will shape an important post-presidential role never attained by any of his predecessors.
But it could also backfire terribly and destroy whatever slim hopes remain of President Kenyatta leaving office in honour and dignity.
One reality the President will have to contend with is that the ground has shifted. The zealous adherents who called him ‘muthamaki’—a term that defies accurate English translation but accords a leader demigod status—now refer to him in derisory terms. Even before the Ruto revolt, central Kenyatta had become disenchanted and disillusioned. Instead of bounty, the region was hard hit, like the rest of the country, by economic decline.
Foes accused him—unfairly, it must be said—of ignoring his backyard while taking development resources to other parts of the country. Campaigns against import tax evasion and importation of counterfeit and poor-quality products were, bizarrely, depicted as aimed at destroying the central Kenya merchant class.
It did not help that President Kenyatta did not suck up to local leaders in the region or travel around in permanent campaign mode, dishing out cash and goodies. It’s thus apparent that DP Ruto did not initiate the central Kenya revolt against the President; he simply tapped into existing sentiment and, in the process, built the ‘Hustler-versus-Dynasty’ campaign to devastating effect.
If the presidential rallies become anti-Ruto caravans, they could backfire terribly and, inadvertently, boost the DP’s State House bid campaign narrative of the small man being fought by the Big Money, Deep State juggernaut.
An open campaign for Mr Odinga’s presidential bid could also backfire badly for both Azimio la Umoja principals. The hate, fear and loathing Mr Odinga evokes in central Kenya did not come by chance. It is the direct result of the vicious propaganda and hate speech driven through the Jubilee campaign machinery and vernacular radio controlled by the First Family.
The President will have a difficult time persuading his political base that the ‘devil-incarnate’ has now become the good guy.
The tour also might not work very well for Mr Odinga, who has had to contend with a very damaging narrative spun by the Ruto camp depicting him as a ‘project’ of the President’s and bankrolled by the moneyed Mt Kenya elite out to safeguard their interests through installation of a lackey at State House.
It does not help matters for Mr Odinga when reports surface that the outgoing President or that self-appointed bunch of community representatives under the Mount Kenya Foundation reserve the right to choose his running mate and to select plum Cabinet positions.
The President also has to face up to the reality that central Kenya is not given to idol worship or blind obedience. President Kenyatta, like President Mwai Kibaki before him, is only useful and relevant when he wields power. Once he is no longer flying the flag, occupying the bully pulpit, determining distribution of development projects, dishing out government contracts or making public service appointments, he becomes past tense and people move on to the next patron and benefactor.
It appears that President Kenyatta intends to retain a powerful presence as the Mt Kenya political kingpin but, if he is being rejected by his own people while still in office, there is little chance that he can reclaim lost ground on his way out.
Put simply, Uhuru Kenyatta is not Raila Odinga. And that’s why it would be a fatal mistake for the latter to pin all his hopes on that endorsement. BY DAILY NATION