An aggressive and spirited push by President Uhuru Kenyatta to reunite ODM boss Raila Odinga with his ex-Nasa partners flopped because of competing 2022 interests.
The ex-Nasa chiefs believe they are best placed to beat Deputy President William Ruto as Raila has unsuccessfully ran for President four times.
The former allies turned foes — Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Moses Wetang’ula of Ford Kenya — backed Raila in 2013 and 2017 polls.
Kanu chairman and Baringo Senator Gideon Moi, who is working closely with Mudavadi, Wetang’ula and Kalonzo under the One Kenya Alliance, supported President Kenyatta in the last two elections.
There are also tensions between Raila and Oka over what Mudavadi has termed as betrayal over failed promises linked to a 2017 MoU in which Raila was reportedly to back Kalonzo in 2022.
The President, who has irretrievably split with his deputy Ruto, hoped that the unity would have been the surest way to block the second-in -command’s ascension to power.
However, despite the Head of State holding at least three private talks with the ex-Nasa leaders to craft a power formula for the 2022 line-up, there has been no much progress.
Conversely, some of the bigwigs have rejected the push and even openly asked him to stay away from his 2022 succession race and allow aspirants to square it out.
They have regrouped and brought on board Gideon and are now ramping up national campaigns to popularise Oka. They maintain they will hold together to the end.
The fledgling Oka, which is also battling fears of an early implosion amid claims of divisions over whether to work with Raila or Ruto, has complicated Uhuru’s succession game plan.
Initially, it was believed that the team would team up with Raila to form a mega alliance to face Ruto in the 2022 presidential duel in line with the President’s succession plans. They are not playing ball.
However, fears that the President had already made up his mind that the rest should support Raila as his preferred successor have triggered jitters within Oka with principals firing salvos.
The Oka team now remains the elephant in the room in President Uhuru’s 2022 succession game plan.
Tongaren MP Eseli Simiyu told the Star that efforts by the President to rally a common course among key opposition leaders has hit a dead end because of competing interests.
“As it appears, bringing together all these leaders to form a joint team ahead of the 2022 polls has become a hard nut to crack and I am seeing a three-horse race,” Simiyu said.
BBI FLOP
The MP opined that the collapse of the Building Bridges Initiative in the courts was the last straw that broke the camel’s back in the succession matrix.
The High Court in May ruled that the BBI process to amend the Constitution was unconstitutional and thus null and void.
In what added salt into injury, the Court of Appeal in August also upheld the same ruling declaring the BBI process illegal. The matter is before the Supreme Court with the case set to be heard from January 18.
The BBI had proposed an overhaul of the country’s governance structure with the introduction of the position of the Prime Minister with two deputies.
This was seen as part of a process to expand the Executive to accommodate the big boys, including Oka chiefs.
There was also a provision to have the Cabinet secretaries picked from Parliament to accommodate regional bigwigs, including retiring governors who have massive influence.
Upon the crumbling of the President’s initial game plan, he held meetings with Oka chiefs and Raila with the aim of bringing them together.
There were two meetings at State House Nairobi and two at State House Mombasa, both of which unsuccessfully sought to hammer a 2022 deal to front a joint presidential candidate.
“It was clear that the President was not happy with the BBI ruling because it radically affected his 2022 plans and that is why we saw him trying to bring these leaders together,” former Cabinet minister Franklin Bett said.
The former Bureti MP said, however, that a united front would have guaranteed a big victory against Ruto’s hustler nation movement.
OKA EXPOSED UHURU
Then came the thunder from Oka as the chiefs fought off perceptions that they were yielding to pressure to back Raila.
Some of the Oka principals took a hard-line position, warning that the President was obtrusively interfering with his succession.
Leading the combat has been Mudavadi, who revealed that there were behind-the-scenes machinations by the deep state to force him and his partners in Oka into backing Raila’s bid.
A furious Mudavadi protested at what he termed as political machinations by some people he did not name trying to rock Oka so that they can back down for Raila.
“Let Kenyans decide,” Musalia protested, saying there were suspicious calls being made to them at night imploring them to team up with Raila.
“It is Kenyans who have the power to pick the leader they want. Let us forget the propaganda being peddled around into forcing some of us to support someone,” the ANC said.
While on a tour of Western Kenya with his Oka partners, Mudavadi fired again, warning that nobody should think that he can “grab any of them like a chick.”
“Oka is not holding a brief for anybody. Let nobody imagine that they will just come and grab any of us like a hawk does chicks,” the ANC boss said in Bungoma.
Even as Mudavadi talked tough, there are indications that Kalonzo and Raila are warming up to each other for a possible 2022 deal, leaving the other Nasa partners in a catch-22.
THE RUTO AND RAILA LINK
There are reports that the storm in Oka has been escalated by differences over whether to back Raila or Ruto.
The wars are now threatening to sink the outfit, which was originally touted as a formidable third force in the 2022 presidential contest.
While some forces are keen to have the outfit team up with Raila, another faction is pushing for a political deal with Ruto. The DP is said to be pursuing Mudavadi to join his camp and indicated the same in a recent interview with Citizen TV.
Yet another group within Oka is adamant the principals must stick together and go all the way to the ballot.
It was Raila’s appearance at the Wiper National Delegates Convention that triggered speculation of a reunion with Kalonzo, leaving Oka chiefs jittery.
At the NDC, Raila recalled his journey with Kalonzo saying, “Our paths will cross again because we are brothers.”
Raila, who is plotting a fifth stab at the country’s top job, formally unveiled his bid on December 10 when he hosted the grand finale of his Azimio La Umoja campaigns. He launched what he called the Azimio La Umoja Movement.
He will later hold the ODM National Delegates Convention where he is set to be endorsed by the party as its 2022 presidential candidate.
Before then, a storm is brewing in Oka with Mudavadi subtly alleging that the President is perhaps trying to corner them to take a predetermined 2022 political direction. BY THE STAR