Uhuru follows in footsteps of Professor of Politics Moi in crafting his succession

 

President Uhuru Kenyatta’s era is one year away from coming to an end and there's anticipation in the air. The stage is set. The cast is on standby. The battle date is August 9, 2022.

About 20 years later, history is repeating itself as the son of the founding President Mzee Jomo Kenyatta heads to retirement  upon completion of his two terms in 2022.

The countdown is underway to the general billed as one of the most hotly contested ever.

In managing his succession, Uhuru has followed in the footsteps of his mentor, the Professor of Politics, former President Daniel Moi.

At the centre is looking for a candidate and pedigree that will maintain the status quo and the business interest of the families that were beneficiaries of post-Independence state power.

“The President is using the template that Moi used when he was retiring," political analyst Peter Mugwe told the Star.

"It is a pure replica of how Moi managed his succession politics, only it did not earn them power in the 2002 presidential election. It is clear to point out every aspect of Moi's style of leadership in President Uhuru.

Mugwe said in as much as Uhuru is following Moi’s script, the plan is likely to end up being barren since “he is planning for a different generation.

“In 2022, we were dealing with a conservative generation that had been conditioned and instilled with fear by the Kanu regime. It was easy for Moi to convince his supporters his preferred successor would run the country well,” he said.

He went on, “But now, you are dealing with a well-informed generation, an educated society that no longer buys cheap anthologies of what some politicians did in the past.”

Just as Uhuru recently pushed his Jubilee Party to enter into a pre- election pact with Raila Odinga’s ODM, Moi had also approached Raila to have his National Development Party swallowed by Kanu before the 2022 polls.

With NDP then part of the government, Moi appointed Raila the Energy minister and also the Kanu secretary general.

Raila, seeing Moi was bringing him closer to his kitchen cabinet, is reported to have concluded the President was grooming him for the top position.

But no.

Raila’s hopes of succeeding the strongman in the sunset days of his 24-year reign were shattered when Moi picked Uhuru.  

Raila, just like Vice President George Saitoti, had not read the signs of the times until things unfolded right before their eyes.

Saitoti, who perished in chopper crash in 2012, served as Moi’s second in command for 13 years and had been widely seen as the heir apparent. Same would be said of DP Ruto, who Uhuru had publicly said he would endorse after his 10-year tenure. 

In protest, Raila supported with a team of other disgruntled Kanu members staged a mass walkout and went ahead to form the Liberal Democratic Party.

Months to the 2002 General Election, Raila led his LDP brigade to join the National Alliance of Kenya, which formed a bigger outfit — the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) led by presidential hopeful Mwai Kibaki.

Kibaki was elected overwhelmingly by Kenyans who were tired of the Kanu regime that had run down the economy. The government was under state capture benefiting a few Moi cronies. 

Kibaki, who is credited with turning around the economy and putting it on a growth trajectory, defeated Uhuru who was then “a Moi project”.  

Fast forward to pre-2022 succession politics. The plot and actors are the same, only the times have changed.

The ruling Jubilee Party has signed agreements with Kanu headed by Baringo Senator Gideon Moi, Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper and now in the process of sealing a deal with ODM.

Just as Kanu created three positions for vice chairmen in the run-up to 2002 poll, the President's close confidants in Jubilee in September last year were reported to be crafting to have four deputy party leader positions. This was in bid to dilute the DP's influence and box him out of the party succession matrix.

Deputy President William Ruto has been edged pushed out of the Jubilee Party, forcing him to seek an alternative vehicle, just as Moi sidestepped Saitoti.

Uhuru is trying to assemble his team of Raila, Gideon, Kalonzo, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang'ula to agree and support one of their own to face off with Ruto in 2022.

Analysts say it will be an uphill task for Uhuru to successfully market his preferred presidential candidate. Critics say Kenyans are already tired of his government that like Kanu has run down the economy and made life unbearable.

Naivasha MP Jayne Kihara argues that after every regime, the country will always want to vote in a new administration.

“In 2002, leaders teamed up to defeat Moi and his project Uhuru. In 2022, Kenyans will come together to defeat this project Uhuru is selling to Kenyans.

"People are so fatigued with Uhuru’s regime and they do not want to see or hear anything that will continue the same business. They will protest at the ballot box,” she told the Star.

“Whoever Uhuru will settle on as his preferred choice should be ready to suffer the same consequences he went through in 2002. That person will have to carry all the baggage of the Jubilee government,” she said.

Kihara said the 2022 election will mark a true transition from post-Independence, saying the previous regimes have had three families calling the shots.

“Kenyans are ready to shake off the few families that have used the state power to their advantage. We will witness a true transition of power to Kenyans. Henceforth, our politics will be about issues and not gratification of a few tribal chieftains,” she said.

However, political analyst Moses Wangila said Uhuru’s line-up stands a good chance of victory.

He said in a phone interview the coming together of the heavyweights and the state machinery will easily defeat Ruto.

“A combination of the six top politicians who have massive followings across the country will give Ruto sleepless nights," Wangila said.

"While I appreciate we are dealing with a well-informed generation with a different view of politics, not much has changed in the political set up."    BY THE STAR