The 2022 Kwale gubernatorial race has taken a new twist after Lungalunga MP Khatib Mwashetani, a key aspirant, announced he would not vie for the seat.
Mr Mwashetani’s move could be a blessing for Deputy Governor Fatuma Achani candidacy.
Late last month, Mr Mwashetani announced he would like to defend his parliamentary seat.
“My withdrawal from the gubernatorial race and to defend my seat as a member of Parliament is for the people of Lungalunga constituency, Kwale County, and Kenya at large,” he said in a statement.
Mr Mwashetani was seen as Ms Achani’s most serious competitor because both are big names in Kwale politics.
Others interested in the seat are Agriculture Principal Secretary Prof Hamadi Boga, Kenya Ports Authority engineer Lung’anzi Chai, former minister Chirau Mwakwere and Daniel Dena.
Political analysts say Mr Mwashetani’s withdrawal will help Ms Achani as both appeared to support the same political party, Deputy President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
“Since both of them were leaning towards UDA, it means Achani remains alone,” said university professor and political analyst Prof Halim Shauri.
But he said Ms Achani still faces a major hurdle as the only woman aspirant facing four male candidates. She is also yet to announce her running mate.
“This is a battle dominated by men and she now has a mountain to climb,” said Prof Shauri, adding that Ms Achani will need to do more to make her candidacy more viable.
Political parties are also a major factor in Kwale politics, Prof Shauri said, and Ms Achani’s fortunes will be tied to what party she runs on.
Ms Achani has previously said she is running for the top county seat to complete development projects that she and Governor Salim Mvurya started.
Mr Mvurya is Ms Achani’s biggest campaigner in Kwale but neither has declared what party she will run on. They were both elected under the Jubilee Party, which is now divided after DP Ruto fell out with President Uhuru Kenyatta.
Mr Mvurya has been noticeably avoiding DP Ruto’s gatherings and meetings, including a recent fundraiser he held in Lungalunga with religious leaders.
Prof Shauri suggested that Ms Achani had not decided what party to join and this puts her in the same position as the other aspirants.
“Political parties now become a point to consider. Though they (Mr Mvurya and Ms Achani) are campaigning, the fact that she has not declared a party up to now puts Achani in murky waters. It seems like they are party-less and this brings her down to the same level as other candidates,” he said.
When DP Ruto was in Lungalunga in July, other politicians, including Mr Lung’anzi attended the event. He was later seen in a UDA cap, a sign that he might be joining the party.
Mr Mwashetani has rejected suggestions that he is supporting Mr Lung’anzi, saying he had not decided which contestant he will support as he takes a back seat to defend his MP seat.
Other observers said Mr Mwashetani’s decision not to run for governor is not a major factor and Ms Achani’s incumbency is not necessarily an advantage. Each candidate, said Pwani University’s Prof Hassan Mwakimako, has his or her strengths.
“Other than the incumbency, there are other strong contestants and everybody out here is trying to strategise. Her being in the system does not mean she will automatically win the race. Other factors will play a role,” he told the Nation.
Another factor, he said, is that Kwale residents may want a change in leadership and will not vote for Ms Achani, who has been deputy governor for two terms.
For Prof Boga, he has settled on his Tourism counterpart Safina Kwekwe as his running mate and they will run under ODM.
Baringo Senator Gideon Moi is backing Mr Dena, who is making a third stab at the governor’s seat. BY DAILY NATION