As the clock ticks towards the 2022 General Election, key contenders eyeing the coveted gubernatorial seat in South Rift counties are banking on clan loyalties, negotiated democracy, and political parties to clinch victory.
Political temperatures are rising in the region that is considered to be Deputy President William Ruto’s political bastion.
A silent wave of early campaigns is slowly sweeping through the region, as aspirants position themselves ahead of 2022. In Nakuru and Bomet counties, first-term governors will face new entrants determined to unseat them, while in Narok and Kericho where governors are serving their final terms, new contenders will face off for the seat.
Jostling to succeed
In Nakuru County, at least four aspirants are jostling to succeed Governor Lee Kinyanjui, who will be seeking a second term. Pundits say negotiated democracy will play a major role in the race for the top seat.
“With the governor coming from the dominant Kikuyu community, the positions of senator, woman representative and deputy governor will be shared among other communities,” says Mr Jesse Karanja, a political analyst.
The cosmopolitan county has huge pockets of Kalenjin, Kikuyu, Luo, Luhya, Kisii, Kamba and Maasai votes. But the populous Kikuyu and Kipsigis communities mainly determine who becomes governor.
Senator Susan Kihika has declared her intention to run for the top seat and is already shopping for a running mate from the Kipsigis community.
Political matrix
Others who have declared interest in the seat are former senator James Mungai, former National Authority for the Campaign against Alcohol and Drug Abuse chairman John Mututho and Dr Peter Koros of Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM), who came second in the 2017 polls.
Revelations that the first Governor Kinuthia Mbugua, who is the current State House comptroller could make a comeback have sent jitters among key contenders, as that could greatly alter the political matrix.
Those close to the former governor say he is carefully weighing his options.
In Narok County, development and clan factors will play big roles in the race to succeed Governor Samuel Tunai, who is serving his second and last term.
Key contenders are MPs Soipan Tuya (Woman Rep), Gabriel Tongoyo (Narok West), and Korei Lemein (Narok South). Others are Labour Chief Administrative Secretary Patrick ole Ntutu, and former county council administrator Stephen Koriata.
Ms Tuya’s candidature is likely to rattle the populous Ilpurko clan, which will have to decide who will fly the flag between the woman rep, Mr Ntutu, Dr Korei, Mr Tongoyo and Mr Kenta.
In 2013, the vote split among the Ilpurko clanspeople gave Mr Tunai an easy ride. The county is dominated by the Ilpurko, Siria and Uasin Gishu clans.
The Kipsigis also have a sizable number of votes. In 2013 and 2017, the Siria joined hands with the Kipsigis to beat the Ilpurko to the seat.
After losing to Mr Tunai in 2013 and 2017, leaders of the populous Purko clan are said to have changed tack and will rally behind Dr Ruto in an attempt to secure Kipsigis votes.
In Bomet and Kericho, the main aspirants will most likely fight for the soul of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party, which enjoys massive support among the electorate.
In Bomet, CCM party boss Isaac Ruto’s entry into the race has unsettled Governor Hillary Barchock. Mr Ruto, who recently decamped to join DP Ruto’s camp, is said to have kicked off discreet campaigns that are giving Governor Barchok sleepless nights.
The two will fight it out for the DP’s support. Dr Barchok succeeded Joyce Laboso who died in July 2019.
Mr Ruto lost to Laboso in 2017, but has been planning a comeback.
In Kericho, contenders will battle it out for an UDA ticket. Energy Cabinet Secretary Charles Keter, former Kipkelion MP Magerer Langat, Kipkelion East MP Fred Kirui, and former National Social Security Fund boss Richard Langat have declared their interest to succeed Governor Paul Chepkwony, whose second term will be ending. BY DAILY NATION