Mt Kenya fissures could jolt marketing of Raila for 2022

 

Growing fissures in President Uhuru Kenyatta's Mt Kenya backyard could jolt plans to market ODM leader Raila Odinga as his preferred successor in 2022.

Raila's Nyanza backyard, meanwhile, expresses confidence that for the first time Uhuru has given his clearest indication yet he wants the former Prime Minister in State House.

Raila's allies say President’s Madaraka Day remarks confirm expectations Uhuru could pull a 'Raila Tosha' next year in a major political surprise.

However, politics being the game of numbers, divisions in both Central and Mt Kenya East blocs could destroy a bid to cast the region's votes in a single basket, and by extension complicate Uhuru's matrix.

The President faces an uphill task to successfully rally Mt Kenya to back the former Prime Minister owing to the widening cracks. And the region's old Railaphobia. 

Former Githunguri MP Njoroge Baiya warned ongoing battles in Mt Kenya could ior the first time obliterate the region's bargaining power.

“Unless leaders develop a clear plan to address divisions in time, it will complicate politics of 2022," the ex-MP said.

Njoroge said what will determine how the region votes in 2022 will be determined by what's on offer. 

“Mt Kenya people have been seen as divided but on polling day, they whip themselves back and vote as a bloc,” Njoroge said.

The region's 10 counties, including the diaspora Nakuru and Laikipia, have nearly eight million votes with Uhuru's own Central Kenya having nearly five million votes — the largest and most coveted vote bloc.

However, there are concerns the President has lost his grip on the region and is unable to deliver the presidency to Raila.

Deputy President William Ruto's considerable support in the region coupled with  widening cracks pitting the East against the West could to deny Raila access.

For the first time, Mt Kenya is hurtling towards an unprecedented split that analysts say could ruin its perennial tyranny of numbers and throw a spanner in the works.

After decades of massive control over the country's presidential duels, Mt Kenya's divisions could diminish its bargaining power on the national scene.

Uhuru's Central turf is pulling away from siblings from Mt Kenya East, which could deny the larger Mt Kenya region its much-hyped numerical strength.

During his Madaraka Day Speech, the President hinted he may back Raila in 2022.

His veiled endorsement of Raila has ignited hopes the Kikuyu and the Luo communities could reunite ahead of 2022..

Raila's allies  raised Uhuru's remarks, saying they are the clearest indication he would back the ODM boss for president.

“The President has come out as a genuine person,” ODM National Treasurer Timothy Bosire said .

Bosire, a key Raila ally, left no doubt about  the feeling in the ODM camp, saying President had finally made known his mind about 2022.

“The road is now clear after the President opened up about his feelings and plans with the former Prime Minister,” the former Kitutu Masaba MP said.

Siaya Woman Representative Prof Christine Ombaka told the Star, "For once, our people are more than excited and ready to work with the President.

“It was a declaration our people had longed for for many years,” she said.

“The journey will now start while we are clear the handshake will deliver the presidency that has eluded us for so  long,” Ombaka said.

The President said he will walk with Raila going forward to realise a prosperous Kenya.

Uhuru defied protocol to invite Raila to address the crowd after Deputy President William Ruto invited the President to speak during Madaraka Day celebrations in Kisumu.

“Whatever the future holds, I look forward to working with him [Raila] and all Kenyan leaders and Kenyans to build a better, brighter, more united and prosperous Kenya, East Africa and Africa,” Uhuru said amidst applause.

However, political analyst Dismas Mokua warned Uhuru could have made the remarks to deliberately excite Raila's backyard.

Mokua said the Kisumu remarks do not in any way suggest the President would prefer Raila as his successor since he earlier said his 2022 choice would shock Kenyans.

“Having Raila as the preferred candidate is not a shock,” Mokua said

He went on, “The Kisumu audience is largely emotionally and irrationally attached to Raila. The President knew by showering Raila with praise, the audience will be happy.”

The remarks invigorate and consolidate Raila's support base.

“Raila must abandon populist politics and embrace problem-solving politics. He must also start managing Railaphobia and respect the gentlemen’s agreements he made with his fellow Nasa leaders,” he said.

For months, the handshake's future was uncertain following what analysts said were mixed signals from the President about 2022.

Some Raila's allies had criticised the President' spower men whom they accused of plotting to isolate the ODM boss from Uhuru's succession matrix.

The One Kenya Alliance of Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka, Moses Wetang'ula and Gideon Moi was seen as the most preferred line-up by some Uhuru's handlers.

The claims and outright political manoeuvres triggered by Uhuru's allies had sparked suspicion the former Prime Minister was being taken for a ride.

While some of Raila's confidants had openly doubted the fruits of the handshake, the President's massive projects in Luo Nyanza could neutralise their concerns.

Some argue the strong political signals from the President, coupled with his giving Raila a free space to enjoy trappings of power in Kisumu could be the game changer.

Alego Usonga MP Samuel Atandi told the Star the region was more confident than ever Raila was Uhuru's choice.

“The message was home. The President is happy with the country's toned down political rhetoric courtesy of the handshake. His remarks in Kisumu cannot be taken lightly,” he said.

The MP was categorical the region has the clearest path to the presidency in 2022.

“Our duty will be to go afield and hunt for votes, working closely with our brothers and sisters from the Mountain,” he said.

A possible reunion of the Luo and the Kikuyu could jolt Ruto's fortunes in the region where his hustler nation movement had been gathering momentum, threatening the handshake.

Political analysts and politicians say the President's move could boost Railas's 2022 prospects but also thrust him into a vigorous vote hunt in Mt Kenya.

Since the March 9, 2018, handshake truce, Raila had shunned campaigns in the larger Mt Kenya region, casting doubt on handshake's benefits for 2022.

Even during the campaigns to popularise BBI, Raila did not visit the mountain to firm up support.

Critics had launched vicious attacks on the viability of the handshake to deliver Raila to State House, questioning Uhuru's reluctance to market the ODM leader in his backyard.

The controversial installation of National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi as the Mt Kenya spokesman was the last straw.

Central Kenya has disowned Muturi and vowed to instal their own spokesman ahead of 2022, complicating Uhuru's options if he wants the region to back Raila.

Kandara MP Alice Wahome, a member of Ruto's Tangatanga movement, said Kenyans will make their own choice when they vote.

“As the hustler movement, we are going right to the people with a clear agenda on how we want transform the economy. We don't  believe in endorsement," she said.

The MP said Raila will face a major problem to position himself as Mt Kenya's choice when residents have embraced he DP.

An upbeat Raila had on Monday compared the 2022 presidential election to a big game hunt for Nyanza and predicted they won't come back empty-handed.

He exhorted his base to come out in droves to register, vote and bring home the trophy.    BY THE STAR