Raila's dilemma: Allies read betrayal as 2022 beckons

 

ODM leader Raila Odinga is walking a political tightrope despite concerns that his unflinching support for the handshake will not be reciprocated by President Uhuru Kenyatta's wing in 2022.

There are growing concerns among Raila's allies the former Prime Minister could be handed the short end of the stick, with almost no time left to assemble another coalition ahead of 2022.

Raila’s right-hand men Senator James Orengo (Siaya) and Otiende Amollo (Rarieda), in no-holds-barred remarks, exposed the simmering disquiet last month when they linked some unnamed powerful civil servants at Harambee House of silently working on Uhuru succession.

"In this country, as President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga are busy with the Building Bridges, there is a cabal inside government who are busy charting the way how Kenya will be ruled after the 2022 election," Orengo said.

Raila has not,  however,  linked his deal with the President to 2022 succession politics.

The ODM chief has weathered a number of betrayals including the 2002 MoU with Mwai Kibaki who later ran roughshod over him.

The betrayal tension has been worsened by the ongoing BBI Bill debate. It reveals the feelings among a section of his inner team that the former Prime Minister continues cede too much ground in the handshake deal, giving the President an upper hand in the peace deal that ended 2008 electoral chaos.

It worries the insiders that Raila has agreed to play BBI ball  at the expense of his support bases. They are reading a raw deal from the BBI Bill, especially allocation of the additional constituencies in which Raila's bastions end up short..

Already there are cracks in his inner team over what his allies say is his compromising attitude.

The disquiet emerged in recent weeks after some of his trusted allies defied his rallying call on the BBI Bill and pushed to reexamine some sections, especially the distribution of the proposed 70 constituencies.

Orengo, Otiende and Nyamira Senator Okongo Omogeni have remained adamant on the issue of the re-allocation of constituencies, defying the party position that MPs support the Bill in its entirety.

The feeling amongst Orengo's camp is that the current distribution model gives President Uhuru’s backyard the lion'a share at the expense of other regions, especially Raila’s Nyanza bedrock.

Uhuru’s Mt Kenya is allocated 14 additional constituencies from the 70 proposed units while Nyanza would get only three.

Proponents of redistribution of the units argue that Raila's move to back the controversial sharing formula, which would see all his bastions lose out, might loosen  his grip in the regions that have religiously supported him over the years.

Constituencies have become the focal point for resource distribution and personnel hiring at the national level.

These include recruitment in the police, the Army and prisons, among others. The distribution of social protection funds, such as the cash transfer programme for the elderly also falls in the category. 

Speaking to the Star, ODM national chairman John Mbadi dismissed betrayal claims. He said Raila has been part and parcel of the entire process and that neither the ODM leader nor President Uhuru Kenyatta got all they demanded.

“As a party, we may not have got everything we wished for. In fact, no party has got everything it wished for,” Mbadi said.

He added, “There are some very important gains in the BBI that we would not want to throw out just because we did not get everything.”

On Wednesday, Orengo camp did not bulge and instead insisted on reviewing Second Schedule of the Bill that allocates the 70 constituencies to 28 counties.

The joint Justice and Legal affairs Committee of both Senate and National Assembly had declared the Schedule unconstitutional.

Omogeni, Orengo and Otiende signed the report ODM told its members to reject.

Other Raila’s allies in the joint team Junet Mohamed (Suna East), TJ Kajwang' (Ruaraka) and Opondo Kaluma (Homa Bay Town) did not endorse the report.

In differing with his party’s position, Orengo maintained the role of Parliament can never be ceremonial especially when handling an important national constitutional mandate like amending the Constitution.

“The Constitution doesn't just say pass, we consider and pass. So there must be evidence for posterity that we actually considered and they can read the reasons why we made up our minds to amend the Constitution,” Orengo said.

“Those who are saying the role of Parliament is ceremonial and that the role of Parliament is that of rubberstamping. Indeed if the role was to rubberstamp, you'd need more ink than brains.”  BY THE STAR