Do Health ministry figures on Covid-19 really add up?

 

Inconsistencies in the Covid-19 numbers reported this past month have raised questions on veracity of the database at the Ministry of Health.

Nation Newsplex, the data journalism desk of the Nation, has noted huge discrepancies in the number of cases recorded, especially over the past few weeks.

The new cases reported by the ministry on April 2 were 1,856. However, the total number of cases reported in counties was 1,778.

Again on April 3, the ministry reported 1,184 new coronavirus infections while the county figures added up to 1,182.

Another anomaly was on April 8, when the Ministry of Health reported 1,698 new Covid-19 patients, while the number in counties added to 1,691, a difference of seven.

Don’t add up

On May 11, the number of infections was 112,298, but after adding 129 cases reported on that day, the tally was 112,427. The ministry, however, gave a total of 113,057.

The numbers of those above the age of 58 who have been vaccinated against the illness also don’t add up.

At one point, the figures rose to more than half a million, then dropped to under 300,000 in the subsequent days.

On May 3, the Health ministry announced that 516,616 people had received the shots but the number dropped to 275,453 the following day.

On May 5, the government said 524,720 people had been vaccinated against Covid-19, only for the number to drop to 278,642 the following day.

The number of people reported to have received the first dose of AstraZeneca vaccine has been fluctuating almost daily since May 10.

The Health ministry, which prepares the situational report and sends the daily figures through a press statement has, however, not been posting the breakdown from the counties along with new cases on their website.

Health Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe could not be reached for comment, but a source at the ministry, who sought anonymity, attributed the anomalies to a new team at Emergency Operations Centre of the infectious diseases unit.

Covid-related deaths

“They seem to be making mistakes,” the source said.

There have also been questions on Covid-19-related deaths, with cases being reported a day or two later.

There is also no clarity on how exactly figures in the late death reports are generated. 

“Unfortunately, 19 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours and all of them are late death reports from facility record audits that occurred on diverse dates,” reads one of the statements from the ministry.

Another form of inconsistency is on testing for Covid-19.

Since May 18, the number of tests has fallen from 7,998 to 1,948 tests, which affects the accuracy of the Covid-19 positivity rate reported in the country.

To get accurate data on the positivity rate, the country needs to have at least 7,000 tests done a day, which the Ministry of Health has not been able to achieve in the recent past.   BY DAILY NATION