Is grand coalition government the better model for Kenya?

 

There was high-level drama this week of senior politicians reaching out to one another in a bid to craft alliances to win next year’s general election.

The events were triggered by Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya having a meeting at the Mara with Deputy President William Ruto. Oparanya was later on seen with Raila Odinga and Devolution CS Eugene Wamalwa in what was rumoured to be ODM leader's overtures to Ruto for him to take up the position of Prime Minister.

For some time, Raila was perceived to have been sidelined by President Uhuru Kenyatta in favour of the One Kenya Alliance comprising of Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Senator Gideon Moi (Kanu), Musalia Mudavadi (ANC) and Moses Wetang’ula (Ford-K). This coalition has been derisively referred to as the ‘Cerelac coalition’ due to the perceived idea that they are being ‘baby sat’ to take over.

A possible Ruto, Raila, Oparanya alliance sent shockwaves to OKA such that Gideon and Uhuru's brother Muhoho Kenyatta had to rush to Karen to appease Raila under the guise of checking on him after he recovered from Covid-19.

It should not be lost to observers that at some point, when the handshake seemed shaken, President Kenyatta drove to Raila’s Karen home to have dinner with his family.

Interestingly, and at the same time, Jubilee secretary general Raphael Tuju is on record as having said the differences between him and Ruto weren’t personal, but the latter’s stand on the BBI that had caused the rift in the party.  Otherwise, Ruto was still the Jubilee’s deputy party leader. All these events point to a very shaky trajectory of politicians aligning themselves in readiness for 2022.

This kind of coalition building gained currency in the run up to the 2002 General Election, with the formation of the National Alliance of Kenya and the Rainbow Coalition, which eventually merged to form the National Rainbow Coalition — Narc. This is the Mwai Kibaki-led coalition that eventually won power against Kanu, then led by Uhuru.  Opposition parties had in 1992 and 1997 won over 60 per cent of the vote but due to their fragmentation, still lost to  President Daniel Moi’s Kanu.

Since then, Kenya has become a de facto two party state, with two major coalitions forming in the run up to every general election. In 2007, it was PNU against ODM party's coalition of Raila’s pentagon. In 2013, it was the Cord against the Jubilee Coalition. Things didn’t change much in 2017 since it was more of a rematch between Jubilee Party and the NASA brigade, which had rebranded from Cord with the addition of Mudavadi.

At the core of all this is the formula of sharing power.

It appears that the 2008 National Accord that created the five posts of President, Vice President, Premier and two deputies remains the magic that has since become elusive in uniting warring factions to form a common hunting pack. For the strength of the pack is the wolf, and the strength of the wolf is the pack.

It’s also buttressed by the fact that according to the 2019 census, 67 per cent of Kenyans belong to the five major ethnic groups of GEMA, the Luhya, the Kalenjin, the Luo and the Kamba. The hustler nation narrative is the counter to this ethnic conglomeration that has seen Ruto galvanise support across the country through the bottom up economic model aptly called 'Wheelbarrownomics'.

The presidency remains alluring despite the existence of devolution as an anti-dote. In fact, the latter has led to further fragmentation in what I call countyism.

So does the 2008 pact that was mooted in 2002 through an unfulfilled MoU, and which has since been replicated in the BBI amendments provide the magic bullet to Kenya’s stability?

Is consociationalism the way to go in a pluralistic society such that the position of prime minister would automatically go to whichever party that gains the majority  in the National Assembly to privide an internal checkmating regime? How do you ensure the sharing of power without emasculating the president, while at the same time not deterring the occupiers of the four other positions from merely being some figureheads?

Further, how do you strengthen the other arms of government and institutions to act independently in the best interest of the citizenry? What with a national assembly that also produces ministers and deputies? Will the Senate not lurk in the shadows, fairly eclipsed by the Prime Minister’s question time and ministerial submissions on the floor of the National Assembly?

Also a curious fact on the checks and balances under BBI is that the most powerful public servant after the President will actually be the Attorney General who shall have the sole privilege of sitting in the three arms of governmentt; as a commissioner in the Judicial Service Commission, an MP in the National Assembly and in the Cabinet as minister of the state law office/Justice and Constitutional Affairs.

Which way Kenya towards a prosperous nation full of equal opportunity for all?   BY THE STAR