Experts raise alarm over a possible third Covid-19 wave

 

Covid-19 cases have risen sharply in the last week, raising concerns among health experts. 

On Monday and Tuesday last week, 51 patients were admitted to ICU, 55 on Wednesday. The number shot to 61 on Thursday and Friday.

On the same Friday, the number of Kenyans who had tested positive for the virus rose to 410 from a sample size of 7,180 — a positivity rate of 5.7 per cent.

The positivity rate was six per cent on Thursday and 5.6 per cent on Wednesday. Similarly, about 40 deaths were recorded in one week.

Experts warn that while Kenya had done well since January, the recent upward trend in cases should be a concern.

“There seems to be a recent turn in the tide, whereby Kenya’s Covid-19 curve is swinging up while most of the countries are witnessing a downturn. This should be a red flag for more vigilance,” Dr Ahmed Kalebi said.

Dr Kalebi is the CEO and chief consultant pathologist at Lancet Group of Laboratories East Africa.

“The Covid-19 numbers in Kenya are not looking good at the moment with a slowly and steadily rising curve of daily new confirmed cases being recorded of late, whereby last week had the highest weekly numbers for this year and positivity rate also staying upwards of five to seven per cent,” he added.

The medic noted that in the rolling seven-day average, the confirmed cases is lower than the number of actual cases due to limited testing.

Ghana and Rwanda have had a drop in cases this year, a trend that seems to be the opposite for Kenya.

Chief medical director at the Nairobi West Hospital Dr Andrew Gachii in a memo dated February 26 noted that both private and public hospitals were experiencing rising numbers.

Dr Gakii warned of a possible peak in the next four to six weeks.

“Currently, the virus is unpredictable as there are many variants and there is much to be learnt but what is known is that the third wave and the issue of herd immunity are intertwined with the behaviour of the virus,” Dr Gachii said.

In mid-January, experts from the Kenya Medical Research Institute had warned of a possible virus surge in March as a result of schools' reopening and the December festive season.

The emergence of the new Covid-19 strain is also expected to cause a surge in the new cases and deaths by 25 per cent.

The projections by Kemri show that in the most feasible scenario, the country is likely to record between 106,000 and 168,000 new Covid-19 cases and at least 116 more deaths by June 1.

Experts have further projected that there will be more than 1.1 million infections over this period, with the majority of infections remaining undetected.

“A worst-case scenario would be an increase in transmission rate by 50 per cent and resulting in an epidemic of similar magnitude to the second outbreak in the country. We think this is unlikely,” Kemri said.

“We predict that by mid-February the impact of schools opening should be clear in terms of case numbers,” the experts said.

The Health director general Dr Patrick Amoth in a briefing early February announced the curve as having flattened but maintained the fight was far from over.

“Strictly speaking you could say that we have flattened the curve but flattening the curve is an event so it is not very important because for sure we still have these surges and spikes going on until everybody is vaccinated and everybody is offered protection,” Amoth said.

Amoth also noted the low numbers being recorded is due to a change in testing strategy late last year.

The ministry has been focusing on testing only the symptomatic cases, truckers due to their movement and Kenyans that fall under the vulnerable groups.  BY THE STAR