Deputy President William Ruto faces a dicey situation in the National Assembly if his political enemies were to push ahead with an impeachment motion.
Although meeting the two-thirds majority vote to set in motion a Senate trial won’t be a walk in the park, his fate could be decided by just five MPs.
The DP enjoys the support of 121 legislators, a number that is enough to scuttle any attempt to impeach him at a time when his relationship with President Kenyatta is at its lowest since they were first elected in 2013.
While Jubilee Party vice-chairman David Murathe has openly backed an impeachment motion, promoters of the idea would have to work harder to succeed.
Under the Constitution, the National Assembly initiates the impeachment process while the Senate conducts the trial and votes to remove from office either the President or his deputy.
The National Assembly requires two-thirds majority to impeach the DP, which translates to 233 MPs. The flipside is that 117 lawmakers are sufficient to stop such a motion.
Tangatanga camp
With at least 121 MPs loyal to the Tangatanga camp, the pro-impeachment team would have to lure at least five legislators to tilt the balance in the House and set in motion the Senate trial.
The assumption, however, is that the other members outside the Tangatanga axis also play ball, without abstentions, in the zero-sum game.
Given the high stakes around such a motion, it would be expected that the DP, too, would go flat out to win over more allies, other than the 121 who wrote letters to the registrar of parties in solidarity with the DP when he protested some Jubilee changes.
In the trial, 45 out of the 67 senators are required to send Dr Ruto home. He only needs the support of 22 senators to survive, and with 20 firmly behind him, it won’t be smooth sailing there, either.
As they tackle the mathematics, President Kenyatta’s camp has set out on the much easier path: to tame him in the ruling Jubilee Party.
The plot was set in motion last year with a purge on House leadership, which essentially was aimed at upsetting the balance of power in the National Executive Committee (NEC).
The Majority Leader and Chief Whip sit in NEC. Other changes that Ruto protested targeted the membership of the National Management Committee (NMC). He failed to block the changes.
President’s allies
On Monday, the NMC – now dominated by the President’s allies – recommended the removal of the DP as Jubilee Party deputy leader on account of sabotage, dereliction of duty and promoting the ideals of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
Yesterday, following another meeting of NMC, Jubilee Party officials declared the decision by NMC to kick out DP Ruto from his position as deputy party leader was a foregone conclusion, only awaiting the Head of State to convene a top party organ to ratify it.
Party chairman Nelson Dzuya and vocal vice-chairman David Murathe yesterday said the Head of State holds the cards on the fate of his estranged deputy’s tenure in the party’s leadership.
“NMC sat in October last year and made a resolution to remove Dr Ruto from his post as Jubilee deputy party leader. That resolution stands. Once the NMC sits, we set the agenda for the National Executive Council (NEC) which can either adopt, review or throw out the decision of the NMC. That is the only thing we are waiting for,” Mr Dzuya told the Nation yesterday.
“It is Ruto that has kicked himself out of Jubilee. How can you remove somebody who has removed himself? It is obvious. NMC did its job. We are just awaiting ratification by NEC,” Mr Murathe said.
With his allies having been thrown out of NEC, the odds are stacked against him, should the President convene the NEC to consider the recommendation.
In the National Assembly, MPs Rigathi Gachagua (Mathira), Kimani Ichungwa (Kikuyu) and Alice Wahome (Kandara) have been the DP’s fiercest defenders.
Others are Moses Kuria, Patrick Munene, Muriuki Njagagu, Ndidi Nyoro and John Kiarie.
They have been present every time the DP has summoned crisis meetings to either issue orders or to chart the so-called Hustler Nation’s political future in the face of a sustained onslaught from the State.
Tangatanga legislators – National Assembly
John Kiarie KJ
Kimani Ichungwa
Nixon Korir
Joash Nyamoko
Caleb Kositany
Aaron Cheruiyot
Patrick Munene
Muriuki Njagagua
Moses Kuria
Cornelly Serem
Kangogo Bowen
William Kisang
Shadrack Mose
Purity Ngirici
G K Kariuki
Nelson Koech
Cornelly Serem
Mugambi Mugwithania
Beatrice Nkatha
Aden Duale
Rigathi Gachagua
Adan Ali
Silvanus Maritim
David Pkosing
Didimus Barasa
Daniel Rono
Kuria Kimani
Michael Muchira
Geoffrey King’ang’i
Kwenya Thuku
Kareke Mbiuki
Jane Chebaibai
George Sunkuiya
Rahab Mukami
Cecily Mbarire
Anab Gure
Brighton Yegon
Jayne Kihara
Ronald Tonui
Benjamin Washiali
Alice Wahome
Ahmed Kolosh
Hilary Kosgei
Florence Bore
Halima Mucheke
Githua Wamacukuru
Gideon Keter
Mutai Bureti
Maisori Marwa Kitayama
Chris Nakuleu
Mathias Robi
Charles Kamuren
Mwalimu Joseph Tonui
Beatrice kones.
Dr Daniel Tuitoek
Haika Mzighi
John Waluke
Martha Wangari
Nimrod Mbai
Faith Wairimu Gitau
Patrick Mariru
Soipan Tuya
Ndindi Nyoro
Lisa Wanjiru Chelule
Moses Lessonet
Oscar Sudi
Dominic Koskei
Kiprop Mishra
Rehema Jaldessa
Charity Kathambi
Samuel Moroto
Moses Cheboi
Gladys Boss Shollei
Wakili Wambugu
Kimani Ngunjiri
Robert Pukose
Shariff Ali
Kago wa Lydia
Joyce Korir
Jonah Mburu
Major Donq
Muchangi Karemba
David Sankok
Peter Lochakapong
George Theuri
Ken Aramat
Ali Wario
Victor Munyaka
Kubai Iringo
Tecla Tum
Joseph Limo
John Muchiri
William Cheptumo
Mwangi Gakuya
Julius Melly
Samuel Gachobe
Malulu Injedi
James Gichuhi
Col (Rtd) Dido Rasso
Joyce Emanikor
James Lomenen
Daniel Epuyo
Anthony Kiai
James Murgor
Katoo Ole Metito
Wilson Kogo
Dan Wanyama
David Kiaraho
David Gikaria
Korei Ole Lemein
Lilian Tomitom
Rahim Dawood
Moses Nguchine Kirima
Benard Shinali
Aloise Lentomanga
Simon Nganga Kingara
Qalicha Gufu
Fred Kapondi Chesebe
Githinji Gichimu
Mary Wamaua
Maj Bashir Abdullahi
Senate
Kipchumba Murkomen
Prof Kithure Kindiki
Susan Kihika
Beatrice Omanga
Eng Abubakar Hargura
Mithika Linturi
Philip Mpayei
Michael Mbito
John Kinyua
Christopher Langat
NAOMI WAQO
Cherargei Kiprotich
Anwar Loitiptip
Victor Prengei
Christine Zawadi
Mary Seneta
Lelegwe Ltumbesi
Falhada Iman
Maalim Mahmud
BY DAILY NATION