Deputy President William Ruto has found himself at the crossroads on whether to oppose or support the Building Bridges Initiative report.
The latest draft contains numerous goodies for key constituencies and political analysts say the DP could face a daunting task fighting the proposals. The irresistible incentives to key sectors are crucial to the success of a referendum.
Since the report was made public on Wednesday, Ruto and his troops, who were previously breathing fire, have yet to categorically state whether they will support or oppose the document.
“Ruto, the politician I know, knows that there is nothing to oppose in the BBI report, save for the creation of the prime minister post, which is controversial,” said political analyst Macharia Munene, a history and international relations professor.
It is not clear if the DP will attend the official launch of the report at the Bomas of Kenya, Nairobi, on Monday. Some sources say he could skip.
“The DP believes he was humiliated during the launch of the first report. He may not go to Bomas,” a source familiar with the behind-the-scenes intrigues told the Star.
The BBI report proposes an increase in county funds allocation from the current minimum of 15 per cent to 35 per cent; establishment of a ward development fund; and a seven-year tax holiday for businesses belonging to the youth.
It also proposes the establishment of a commission for the youth and a four-year grace period for beneficiaries of the Higher Education Loans Board.
Women are also winning big with more seats in Parliament to ensure gender parity. Some of the incentives are clear sweeteners targeting crucial sectors that the DP has been wooing in his anti-BBI campaigns.
President Uhuru Kenyatta has strategically been naming these incentives in his development tours — first on Thursday in Kisumu and again on Friday in Nairobi.
“If we allow our university graduates a four-year grace period before starting to pay their loans, is there a problem?” Uhuru asked at Pumwani, Nairobi, on Friday, with a frenzied crowd shouting “no” in response.
Ruto allies have dismissed critical proposals in the report, including the expansion of the Executive but none would outrightly say they would hit the road to campaign against the document.
Shortly after the report was unveiled, former Senate Deputy Speaker Kithure Kindiki poured cold water on it, saying it overburdens the taxpayer by increasing the size of Parliament.
Kindiki said the report only seeks to reward ethnic chiefs from the five biggest communities but quickly added, “I will digest it and reread it several times over before I make up my mind and cast my lot with the majority of the citizens of our dear country.”
Even as Kenyans and their leaders continue to react, President Kenyatta has welcomed dialogue to allow “constitutional consensus”.
However, the Ruto team is already opposed to key elements of the report that are at the heart of the peace deal Uhuru had with Raila.
The Handshake duo have argued that the current system of government is zero-sum, a winner-takes-all situation that they say must be repealed to allow for a more inclusive government. But Ruto says this is simply creating jobs for the big boys.
With the proposed empowerment of MCAs through the multimillion-shilling kitty that would have at least five per cent of a county’s budget, as well as enhanced revenue to the counties, Ruto will have a mountain to climb if he opposes the recommendations.
The incentives would also make a no-vote a tall order should the DP decide to walk a lonely path as he did in 2010 when he opposed constitutional changes, losing overwhelmingly at the ballot.
Already, some of the DP’s disciples have indicated they would reject the BBI report on the basis that it contains “populist proposals that would be difficult to implement”.
“It is impractical that at least 35 per cent of the national revenue can be taken to the counties. That would mean shutting down most of the national government functions. This idea is populist,” Soy MP Caleb Kositany said.
The Jubilee deputy secretary general said the increase in the number of legislators in Parliament would also burden Kenyans at a time when the country is reeling from a ballooning wage bill.
The incentives in the BBI report are seen as a part of the team’s plan to ensure it sails through. The sweeping and exciting proposals could have caught the Ruto camp by surprise after months of aggressive campaigns to build its own political force ahead of 2022.
If Ruto decides to support the BBI, which he had fiercely opposed way before the proposals were released, he could be seen to have betrayed his supporters by leaving them confused about what he wants or stands for.
The DP’s failure to support the report would also put him in an awkward position, with key political bigwigs likely to cross ranks and build coalitions ahead of the 2022 polls.
The recommendation on the expansion of the Executive, which the DP has opposed, could fire up coalitions among the big boys ahead of the 2022 polls, leaving Ruto isolated and with little options.
The country’s main political figures, including regional kingpins, could easily cross over to the BBI team and use the push to amend the Constitution as a platform to build 2022 lineups.
President Kenyatta and ODM boss Raila Odinga are working closely in the BBI process, and so are Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Kanu chairman Gideon Moi, in what could complicate Ruto’s game plan.
Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi has formed a team to advise him on the way forward insofar as the report is concerned, but there are indications he could be roped into the Uhuru-Raila axis ahead of the 2022 polls.
Ruto has been targeting the youth, women and vulnerable groups under the ‘hustler’ narrative, which he plans to use as the central plank of his 2022 election campaigns.
For instance, he has anchored his 2022 presidential campaigns on what he calls empowerment of the youth through informal businesses and accused the system of ignoring the young generation.
The former Eldoret North MP has also been rallying the country to support the two-thirds gender rule and had insisted the equation was of priority than the “scramble for powerful slots”.
However, in the BBI deal, radical policy and legislative changes are proposed to support the youth, women and vulnerable groups.
Through a raft of policy proposals, the BBI seeks to put the youth at the centre of government focus through sustainable economic empowerment as opposed to Ruto’s handouts approach of wheelbarrows and carts (mikokoteni).
With the youth forming a formidable vote bloc, the DP’s plan to endear himself to them through his aggressive ‘hustler’ politics could be complicated.
The President and Raila have also rolled out meetings with the youth in the boda boda industry in what is seen as part of the plan to lobby for the BBI report and counter the DP’s support among young people.
On Friday, Uhuru met all officials of the Boda Boda Association of Kenya in Nairobi, while Raila had a meeting with women leaders as the BBI campaigns start in earnest.