The Covid-19 infection curve continues to be steep but it could dip from December to March.
That’s what the Health ministry said on Friday after meeting with modelling teams to review the Covid-19 situation.
Current data from epidemiologists show the number of infections is escalating and the curve is steep.
“When you look at past models updated two weeks ago, they continue to inform us the curve shall continue going up, with the dipping of the curve coming at around December all the way to January February and March,” Health CAS Mercy Mwangangi said on Friday.
She told reporters at a briefing that one day is not enough to tell whether the curve is flattening, noting that operations in four laboratories have stalled in the last few days, so fewer test samples could be processed.
“We are still at the escalation phase of the curve. Usually when you are looking at an epidemic curve, you need to see it in terms of a time series so that’s what we are getting from the modeling teams – that the curve continues to peak [rise],” she said.
The CAS called on counties to adopt a regional approach and leverage available resources.
Last week, just 65 per cent of the counties had met the 300-isolation bed capacity required.
They are also expected to ensure they hav the requisite number of healthcare workers and supplies such as PPEs.
“We continue to improve upon this but also we are going to the point where need to leverage on whatever facilities are available,” Mwangangi said.
She added,“People have said we have empty isolation units. Yes, that is happening so we are going to the point where perhaps we need a regional approach” of sharng resources, she said.
Already, Lake Region counties are ensuring they share their resources so they are deployed rationally.
Special programmes head Kepha Ombacho said the ministry will be sharing donations it receives with counties in far-flung areas, especially ICU facilities.
“All donations we are getting we give out based on the caseload for each county. That means counties with bigger caseloads get more. We normally look at all the counties, plus national facilities and institutions at the front line,” Ombacho said.
Briefing data show thenumber of positive cases stands at 31,763 after 322 more cases were confirmed.
On a positive note, 288 more people recovered from the virus, 190 from home-based care, while 98 were discharged from hospitals.
This brings the total number of treated patients who have recovered to 18,157.
The new cases range in age from three years to 92 years and include 179 men and 143 women.
Nairobi county continues to lead with new infections after recording 106 cases, followed by Kajiado with 53 cases.
Sixteen more people died, raising the death toll to 532.