Kenyans could have to wait longer for white smoke over the controversial formula for sharing cash among the counties after last-minute talks to unlock the Senate impasse collapsed.
The Star has established that warring factions in the Senate have maintained their hardline positions. Senators continue digging in, despite seven sittings having been adjourned for lack of a solution.
The stalemate over the formula has stalled the passage of the County Allocation of Revenue Bill (CARA), 2020, legislation that outlines how the Sh316.5 billion allocated to the counties in the 2020-21 budget should be shared.
It also emerged that Opposition chief Raila Odinga, who last week made a U-turn and called for a win-win situation, could be under pressure from his strategists to reject the formula altogether.
There are concerns within Raila’s camp that the ex-Prime Minister risks eroding his political gains thus far should he back the controversial matrix.
Raila’s allies have warned him that his support in the pastoralist counties as well as less populated units could go down the drain if he supports a formula that reduces their allocations.
In the disputed formula proposed by the Finance and Budget Committee, 18 less populous counties of North Eastern, lower Eastern, Coast and parts of Rift Valley regions are losing Sh17 billion.
It has been rejected by senators from those regions who have also successfully managed to win over at least seven lawmakers from the counties that will gain funds.
On Monday, the two Senate camps stuck with their guns, showing no indication of compromise.
“There is no deal. And if there is any, then that is a deal that is made under ‘mandazimonics’ somewhere. I can tell you, those are roadside deals,” Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei told the Star.
Cherargei is a leading light representing counties that are winning under the controversial formula proposed by the Senate Finance and Budget Committee chaired by Charles Kibiru of Kirinyaga.
His remarks lifted the lid on the expected fireworks pitting the two camps ahead of Tuesday’s afternoon sitting. This would be the eighth sitting convened in a two months to debate and vote on the formula, spelling out how counties will share Treasury funds.
On Monday, while the camp opposing the committee proposal was able to reach an agreement, at least to unlock the stand-off, the other faction rejected the supposed deal as a “roadside” deliberation.
Last evening, Nairobi Senator Johnson Sakaja, who is leading the One Kenya team—the camp opposing the committee formula—and whose amendment to the disputed formula is pending on the floor, managed to harmonise his proposal with the one suggested by Mithika Linturi (Meru).
The harmonised version has been endorsed by team One Keny’, which comprises more than 25 senators opposed to the original committee formula.
But the proponents of the committee proposal, led by Majority leader Samuel Poghisio and Majority Chief Whip Irungu Kang’ata, dismissed the agreement and said they were ready to go down to the wire.
The One Kenya team, the Star established, has held four meetings since last Thursday to deliberate on Linturi’s proposal. They met at the Radisson Blu Hotel, the Clinton Hotel in Kiambu, the Panafric and the latest one on Monday morning in Parliament.
On Monday evening, the team was scheduled to hold another meeting to receive a final brief from Sakaja who had been tasked to strategise how to win the vote on the floor on Tuesday.
The Senate leadership, led by Speaker Kenneth Lusaka, was also holed up in a meeting for the better part of Monday afternoon in a last-minute effort to find common ground.
The failure to pass the Revenue bill has pushed the counties to the brink of a cash crisis – they say they are over the brink.
The One Kenyateam has been accused of stalling negotiations. Last Thursday, Speaker Lusaka appointed a nine-member team to be chaired by Deputy Speaker Margaret Kamar. The Sakaja-led team protested, however, saying Kamar was a partisan player. They declined to send their members to the negotiating table.
The move forestalled talks. The speaker had directed that the team retreat to Naivasha at the weekend to harmonise the six amendments to the committee formula report and brief members in a Kamukunji (informal meeting) on Tuesday morning before the plenary in the afternoon.
Senator John Kinyua from Laikipia, a county gaining millions in the committee formula, said there have been no negotiations since the debate was adjourned last Tuesday.
“There is no negotiation. They all flopped. The losing counties, so to speak, did not send people to the team set up by the Speaker. The ones who were chosen from the so-called winning team could not negotiate on their own. So there was no negotiation. The matter will now be settled on the floor,” Kinyua said.
Weighing in on the issue, nominated Senator Isaac Mwaura of Kiambu said, “There is no agreement. Only more and more proposals. This is turning out to be more of politics than the formula. Some people want to hold the Senate and counties to ransom because of preexisting political grievances or 2022 presidential schemes.”
To ensure no county loses revenue, Sakaja proposed an amendment to the committee formula. He recommended Sh316.5 billion allocated to the counties in the budget be set as the baseline shared equally among the 47 counties.
Any other parameters of sharing revenue, including land size, population and health, should apply to excess amounts. The amendments are pending on the floor.
Last Thursday, Senator Linturi, who is also the brains behind the controversial committee formula, proposed an amendment to Sakaja’s suggestion, reducing the baseline to Sh270 billion.
The other parameters in the formula, Linturi recommended, should apply to the remaining Sh45.5 billion.
“We have made quite some progress this weekend. We have discussed [and]- I am confident that the stalemate will end tomorrow,” Sakaja said.
“I have my amendments on the floor, there are certain amendments we have agreed on. So, Kenyans should have hope. I expect to see some light at the end of the tunnel tomorrow.
“Maybe for those who still want division, we want to tell them that it won’t work this time. We won’t allow ourselves to be divided by this debate.”
Minority Chief Whip Mutula Kilonzo Jr of Makueni admitted that while his team, One Kenya, has agreed with the Sakaja-Linturi harmonised amendments, their colleagues in the other camp have rejected it. They said they would go down to the wire – having the formula subjected to a vote on the floor.
“It is agreeable on just our side. It boosts our numbers. The other side haven’t agreed. It will go down to the wire,” he said.
Mandera Senator Mohamed Mahamud, whose county is losing Sh1.8 billion in the committee formula, said they have agreed with the harmonised amendment because it reduces the “degree and magnitude” of the loss and gain.
“I think that is a good deal. There is a bit of gain and a bit of loss but there is a substantial difference from what was in the committee report and that of the Commission on Revenue Allocation. It is something manageable,” he said.