ODM leader Raila Odinga’s sudden U-turn on the disputed revenue sharing formula has thrown his political soulmate President Uhuru Kenyatta and the Mt Kenya region under the bus.
The move could also jeopardise his chances of penetrating the vote-rich region, whose leaders support the controversial formula, ahead of 2022.
The President’s backyard had banked on Raila’s support to push through the contentious formula whose enactment could have seen all Mt Kenya counties pocket billions, while depriving ODM bastions.
However, Raila’s surprise about-turn against the whole revenue formula now complicates Mt Kenya leaders’ push for resources to be allocated based on population and not land size.
On Thursday, former Cabinet Minister Franklin Bett warned that Raila had been taking a big gamble with Mt Kenya before he realised his mistake.
“I think he has come to the realisation that Mt Kenya cannot be trusted. He has retreated to his original support bases by pulling out of the formula,” Bett said.
On Wednesday, Raila beat a hasty retreat and asked the CRA to go back to the drawing board and craft a formula that does not disadvantage any region.
“It should not be a winner and a loser. It should be a win-win situation. That was the reason why amendments were being proposed that you do not implement any formula now until more resources are made available,” he told NTV in an interview.
He went on, “….so that no county will lose, each county would get the same amount of money they got in the last financial year as we are working on this.”
The former Prime Minister had on July 27 urged the Senate to adopt the original CRA report, thus rallying his support behind Mt Kenya and ignoring cries from his traditional support bases of Coast and North Eastern.
Raila, who has come under heavy political heat from his allies at the Coast, Ukambani, North Eastern and parts of Western Kenya over claims he had betrayed them, now says he was initially not properly briefed.
“When I wrote an article, I talked about CRA. That time I had just come back from Dubai. I did not even know that the CRA report had been changed by the committee of Parliament,” Raila said.
Raila’s remarks appeared to be a strategic move to salvage his political fortunes in the marginalised counties whose leaders had vowed to chart a new political path after he initially backed the contentious formula.
President Uhuru has not openly supported the formula but his close allies, including Senate Majority Whip Irungu Kang’ata and Jubilee vice chairman David Murathe, maintained it was a government agenda.
Murathe, a key Uhuru confidant, threatened to discipline senators who opposed the formula proposed by the Senate Committee on Finance and Budget.
On Tuesday, Kangat’a disclosed in the debating chamber that he even convened a Parliamentary Group meeting to whip Jubilee members to support the formula.
Earlier, the Murang’a senator had threatened to rally the t Kenya region to vote against the Building Bridges Initiative, a product of the handshake, should the formula be defeated on the floor.
The Charles Kibiru-led panel had reviewed the report on the third basis for sharing of revenue for counties proposed by the Commission on Revenue Allocation and adopted most of its recommendations.
However, the report triggered a political storm after marginalised and less populated counties ganged up against the proposal that would see at least 18 devolved units lose Sh17 billion.
Some 29 counties, mainly in Uhuru’s Mt Kenya region, were to gain the money lost by the affected counties, posing a political headache for Raila.
The ODM leader has been between a rock and a hard place – balancing between safeguarding the handshake and protecting his political bases that were fast sliding away over the revenue formula.
Murang’a Governor Mwangi Wairia has already protested against plans to take away money from Central Kenya.
“We were taken to jail for fighting for our freedom. You cannot take away (money) from us and take the money to another person because they have large tracks of land,” he said.
He added, “Let people stop pressing us. I am not ready to see our people being pressed. Our people will not be pressed again. I stand with Central Kenya people. I swear that if we are denied the money, we will also remain with our wealth.”
On Thursday, political analyst Martin Andati said that Raila’s sudden about-turn on the formula was an attempt to control the damage caused by his initial statement.
“He realised he had blundered big time. His handlers would not have allowed him to issue that statement. We all saw that was political suicide,” he said.
Andati added, “You have already disowned the people. After the thing has flopped then you turn around and say you were wrong. That was a huge blunder he made.”
But Alego Usonga MP Samuel Andati, Raila’s ally, appeared to blame Mt Kenya leaders for politicising the revenue sharing formula.
“Raila’s position on the formula has never changed. He has always referred to CRA. He has never been moved by political affiliations. The problem is that some people from Mt Kenya started politicising it and we said that this matter should not be politicised,” he said.
In what was seen as a strategy to save face after Raila’s grave blunders, the ODM leader on Thursday released a statement denying Raila had withdrawn support for the CRA formula.
Through his spokesman Denis Onyango, Raila said the reports are misleading and inaccurate considering the complex stalemate that he is trying to help the country navigate.
“Mr Odinga cannot withdraw support for a document that is not under consideration by the Senate.
“Instead, he is encouraging senators to overcome their extreme positions and come up with a middle ground document that all can agree on so that the country can move forward,” he said.
He said the current document on the formula has gone through many versions by senators and the committee and does not reflect the CRA spirit.
On Tuesday, senators voted to adjourn the vote on the committee report that sets the formula for the sharing of resources among counties.
Senate Deputy Speaker Magret Kamar was picked by Speaker Kenneth Lusaka to chair the team that is bringing together both factions to find a middle ground for the formula.
Seven MPs allied to ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi on Thursday chided Raila, saying he had finally made a 180-degree about-urn after seeing the light.
“Interestingly, the former PM argues that his commitment to the first position has borne out the fact that he did not have a full appreciation and understanding of the CRA report. We are surprised and dismayed that a leader of his stature can make a public statement of such magnitude without having a proper understanding of the facts,” they said.
They were Ayub Savula (Lugari), Alfred Agoi (Saboti), Tindi Mwale (Butere), Titus Khamala (Lurambi), Beatrice Adagala (Vihiga Womna Representative), Ernest Kagesi (Vihiga) and Matungu MP Justus Murungu.
Jubilee and ODM legislators have been working jointly in Parliament – in the spirit of the newfound truce between their leaders – since the ruling party split into two factions, Kieleweke and Tangatanga.
Following the split, Jubilee has lost the famous tyranny of numbers with the Uhuru-leaning Kieleweke teaming up with Raila’s ODM to push through the government’s agendas on the floor.
The divisive formula has been rejected by at least 25 senators.
All the counties in Uhuru’s Central Kenya save for Tharaka Nithi and all the five counties in Raila’s Nyanza backyard, apart from Nyamira, are gaining in the proposed formula.