The Orange Democratic Movement is fronting party leader Raila Odinga for President in 2022, the Nation has learnt.
With the strained relationship between President Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto, and the Head of State now said to be looking beyond his Jubilee Party for a possible successor at the end of his term, Mr Odinga’s allies see this as his golden opportunity.
While Mr Odinga has been reluctant to state his stand on the matter, insisting that he is keen on seeing constitutional amendments through the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) to enhance inclusivity as the country heads towards the next elections, his party officials say he will not exit the political stage anytime soon.
The party’s national treasurer Timothy Bosire said Mr Odinga still remained on the political stage and that, in addition to his past contributions to the “democratisation and reforms in the country, Kenyans are yet to see the last of him”.
“So it is not over yet. The flower of his legacy is being remodelled again,” said Mr Bosire, adding: “At this critical moment, I see him as a balancing act between the anarchists and those operating on the status quo. His last contribution is ahead of us. It is yet to come. In him we expect major contributions going forward.”
He said the party had never been ambiguous on fielding a presidential candidate in 2022 and that remains their focus.
“So he (Raila) is the major balancing act towards 2022 and forward,” he said, adding that ODM will continue to work with the ruling Jubilee for the benefit of Kenyans.
Secretary-general Edwin Sifuna said Mr Odinga had demonstrated selflessness by endorsing (Mwai) Kibaki in 2002. “To ask him to endorse someone else again is to ask too much.”
IMPLEMENT VISION
He added: “As the holder of the vision for a new Kenya, the country will do well to give him an opportunity to implement this vision.”
However, ODM national chairman John Mbadi said Mr Odinga is more interested in his legacy.
“Where Raila has reached, it is not just the question of being President but the question of what he is leaving behind,” Mr Mbadi said.
“He has played a bigger role in the politics of this country so his legacy will be his great concern,” he said, adding that he does not foresee a scenario where Mr Odinga and President Kenyatta will go their separate ways in the 2022 polls.
“Uhuru has been President for seven years and his concern is also about his legacy. That joins them together and is what other people have underrated. This can make them do anything so long as they see it to be for the benefit of this country, including even sacrificing their ambitions,” the ODM chairman added.
He went on: “I don’t think 2022 is already decided because it is a bit far. But what I foresee is that the two will be on the same page going to 2022 or in the same kind of alliance.”
Given the way the President and Mr Odinga have built their trust, Mr Mbadi noted that the stakes are high for the two leaders and their main agenda is to leave a solid foundation premised on peace and stability.
During the Jubilee National Assembly Parliamentary Group meeting on Monday, President Kenyatta alluded to the fact that he is keen on working with leaders ready to support his agenda and that he will continue to discharge those not willing to help him shape his legacy.
UNITED JUBILEE
The President reportedly stated that he had wished to hand the baton to “our (party) member, but some have only continued to utter insults instead of helping me complete my agenda”.
He wondered why despite his continued plea for a united Jubilee and country, some leaders are only keen on advancing their own personal interests.
With the clamour by opposition parties for post-election coalition agreements with Jubilee and the President making all indications that he is ready to work with other leaders across the political divide going forward, there are pointers that the race to succeed him now remains wide open despite Jubilee’s initial plans to back Mr Ruto in 2022.
Already, Mr Odinga is working with Jubilee through the March 9, 2028 Handshake deal while Gideon Moi’s Kanu has signed a post-election coalition pact with the ruling party.
Mr Kalonzo Musyoka and Isaac Ruto of Wiper and CCM, respectively, are also planning to ratify their coalition deals after inking a cooperation agreements with Jubilee only last week.
The opposition leaders are now seeking to share the spoils of the falling-out in Jubilee and are even targeting an endorsement by the Head of State at the end of his tenure.
In a recent exclusive interview, President Kenyatta told the Nation and NTV he was keen on working with people who “will not fight my agenda”.
SUCCESSION MATRIX
Now, opposition leaders are racing against time to work with the President’s administration as he crafts his succession matrix for 2022.
Those in the know say the Head of State is seeking to consolidate a team of top leaders to craft a 2022 winning formula and avert a scenario similar to the one witnessed in 2002 when the ruling party was vanquished by the opposition.
In 2002, President Daniel Moi settled on then 41-year-old Mr Kenyatta, leading to a rebellion in Kanu, with Mr Odinga leading a mass walkout from the party to join former President Kibaki and his team in the National Alliance of Kenya (NAK).
Mr Odinga’s team under the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) joined NAK to form the National Alliance Rainbow Coalition (Narc) that ended 40 years of single-party rule in the country.
“He (President Kenyatta) is not interested in an acrimonious election because he wants to leave an all-inclusive united country and that is why he is keen on constitutional amendments through the BBI to build strong institutions and have a structure that will accommodate everybody,” a senior State official told the Nation.
Senate Majority Chief Whip Irungu Kang’ata, who was recently elevated to the position following the purge of DP Ruto’s allies, told the Nation that the President had not yet endorsed anyone to take the mantle from him in 2022.
“The President hasn’t endorsed anyone. He is into building institutions not persons. He believes once institutions are crafted afresh through the constitutional amendments, it will not matter who is the President,” Mr Kang’ata said.
He went on: “However, I can confirm Uhuru cannot trust persons with a history of corruption, incompetence and ethnic divisions.”
Jubilee secretary-general Raphael Tuju said the country needs a dispensation that brings all Kenyans together.
“We hope that the BBI and the referendum, which will follow, will enable us to structure a government which is inclusive,” Mr Tuju told the Nation.
ACCOMMODATE EVERYBODY
He pointed out that Kenyans want a system that will accommodate everybody.
“Therefore, what we need is the leadership that can embrace that inclusion and laws and regulations that will ensure nobody feels a stranger in our own country,” he said.
Nyeri Town MP Wambugu Ngunjiri, a member of the Kieleweke camp that supports the President, said the Head of State has been categorical on several issues that he wants accomplished.
“That Kenyans have peaceful elections with no fighting over results. To achieve this requires transparent election processes, and a change from our current ‘winner-takes-all’ situation to one that is inclusive, whatever happens during an election,” Mr Ngunjiri said.
He added that the President’s opinion is that there must be a cost to corruption — fast prosecution, and fair punishment.
“The President has also focused his attention on the Big Four agenda, which is his economic blueprint. In my opinion, he will support the person who best represents these ideals, and who has been consistent in helping him achieve them, and proven himself reliable to continue in that process post-2022,” Mr Ngunjiri said.
Cherangany MP Joshua Kutuny, the President’s former political adviser, told the Nation that several options will be considered in defining the candidate to take over the mantle in 2022, including the likely successor’s popularity across the country. But this, he noted, will come after the BBI referendum.
“The reason you have even seen the referendum bill coming to Parliament is that what is going to unlock all these issues going on is the structure of government that is going to be adopted,” Mr Kutuny said.
“Definitely, there will be a negotiation. All of us must be part of the system that is going to come. We are going to see an arrangement like the one of the accord (National Accord) of 2008,” said the MP.
He went on: “The discussion we are having now is not about who is going to take what, but first of all let us focus on creating these positions then we will see who will take what.”
ENDORSEMENT
“We will consider a lot of issues and numbers will be held dearly. For the moment, however, pushing for the referendum and constitutional amendments is our main agenda,” he added.
With Mr Odinga, Mr Moi, Mr Musyoka and Mr Ruto now working with the President, they are highly expected to be among the top leaders seeking his endorsement for 2022.
Political analyst Javas Bigambo argues that “Uhuru is at the tail end of vanquishing (DP) Ruto from the succession game plan” and leave the plan wide open.
“Ruto now degenerates from the golden boy of Jubilee succession to the black cat in the political class as we move towards 2022,” Mr Bigambo said.
“What remains, therefore, is for Uhuru to map out his succession matrix, and guard against Ruto messing up that arithmetic by building possible coalitions outside his gameplay.”
He pointed out that in the new Jubilee coalition arrangement, it would, however, be difficult for the President to gamble with his choice, bearing in mind Mr Odinga’s influence across the country.