Kenyan scientists are predicting that up to 400 people will die from Covid-19 this month.
This simulation is based on the Ministry of Health model that shows the infections could reach 10,000 by April 31.
According to various independent models, for every 1,000 infections in Kenya, about 40 patients will die.
The predictions are based on trends in other countries, which show a crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) of between three per cent and four per cent.
By Monday, 158 people in the country had contracted the virus. Six had died.
Most models predict Kenya’s case fatality rate, even in the current circumstances, will be higher.
Dr Mark Nanyingi, an infectious disease epidemiologist, calls on the government to be more open with information because it is likely more people are infected and more have died.
“It’s not clear which models are being used by the Kenyan government, their data sharing protocols lack transparency and therefore there is also uncertainty over the status of the disease within the country,” he says.
Dr Nanyingi lectures at the UK’s University of Liverpool and the University of Nairobi.
He says globally, Covid-19’s mortality ratio is roughly between three per cent and four per cent.
“For Kenya, this implies that – in the worst-case scenario – 40 people may die for every 1,000 confirmed cases if no intervention is put in place,” he says.
Currently, testing in Kenya is largely selective, targeting those in government-mandated quarantine or those who present with elevated temperatures.
Nairobi-based epidemiologist Dr Nelly Yatich says the argument that Kenya’s population is youthful and therefore the death rate will be lower does not hold water.
She places the percentage of people who will die from the disease at five per cent.
“I chose to stick with the global case fatality rate of five per cent because even though we have a youthful population, we grapple significantly with both communicable diseases – Aids, tuberculosis, malaria, pneumonia etc., and non-communicable illnesses,” she says.
If the curfew, handwashing and social distancing campaigns are not adhered to, more than 28 million Kenyans will get coronavirus this year, she says.
“Going by case fatality rate of five per cent, it means approximately 1.4 million Kenyans will die if we do nothing,” she says.
However, Dr Yatich notes if the current measures are adhered to strictly, it is possible to reduce deaths to one per cent.
Nevertheless, she notes that without widespread testing, Kenya will not reduce the disease spread because there will be sick people roaming around and spreading the disease.
“You test, isolate and trace to minimise community spread. Without this, we are swimming blind,” she says.
According to a model by Rescue.co, Kenya’s largest network of emergency responders in Kenya, the future is grimmer.
They predict active infections in Kenya will peak at about 19 million people in May.
This model assumes there is a 50 per cent reduction in social contact and the government strictly enforces the nationwide curfew.
“These measures are not comprehensive and the government provides a little financial incentive for people to stop working. Corruption takes place and 50 per cent of the population continues to move as per usual,” the model prepared by Hugo Winn for the organisation, further assumes.
The model shows going by the current trend, Kenya will need 28,000 ventilators and 38,420 Intensive Care Unit beds by June.
However, the model, which was lastly updated on April 2, is fluid and is and is expected to change as the government changes its response to the disease.
According to the World Health Organization, models on Covid-19 only describe a range of possibilities and most of them are changing rapidly because this is still an unclear, infectious disease.
Kenya’s modelling mirrors that of Uganda where the Ministry of Health, says the country will have 18, 878 cases (at a three per cent fatality rate, 566.34 deaths) by April 31.
“This is unbearable for our already constrained health system; and something had to be done, immediately,” Dr Jane Ruth Aceng said in a 19-page report released last Thursday morning.