The just concluded Kibra by-election was a major showcase, attracting the who’s who in Kenya’s political arena with an eye on the presidency in 2022.
However, former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka was curiously missing in action, prompting speculation over his political game plan.
The Wiper party leader neither fielded a candidate in the by-election won by the Orange Democratic Movement’s (ODM) Bernard Otieno Okoth nor backed one from another party.
Instead, Mr Musyoka’s sworn political rivals from his Ukambani backyard, Charity Ngilu, Kivutha Kibwana and Alfred Matua, who are governors of Kitui, Makueni and Machakos, further complicated the situation for the former VP by publicly aligning themselves with ODM leader Raila Odinga.
Mr Musyoka has supported Mr Odinga’s presidential bid twice in a row as a running mate and the possibility of the former prime minister embracing the ex-VP’s rivals sends a powerful coded message.
BETRAYAL
The move by the governors, who have vowed to work with Mr Odinga beyond the Kibra by-election through to the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) and the next presidential poll, offers more questions than answers.
Just what is happening to Mr Musyoka’s political kraal? Has he dropped out of the political contest for the top seat or not and what are his options ahead of 2022?
Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua attributes the political dalliance between Mr Odinga and the Ukambani governors to the Orange party leader’s alleged plot to betray the Wiper leader.
“Having supported his presidential bid twice in 2013 and 2017, Hon Odinga has realised that he owes Hon Musyoka a huge political debt, which he is unable or unwilling to pay.
“Having reneged on a written and signed agreement to back our party leader’s presidential bid in 2017, Hon Odinga wants to access the Kamba voting bloc through an alternative avenue and also shield himself against the political debt.”
Dr Mutua, however, rejects claims that they are being misused to politically undermine Mr Musyoka, who is viewed as the Kamba political kingpin.
SOUTH SUDAN PEACE
According to the Machakos governor, he and his Kitui and Makueni counterparts have elected to work with Odinga “because we are concerned about the stability of this country and we believe that the handshake deal between the former PM and President Uhuru Kenyatta is the way to go as a country”.
Efforts to get the input of the former VP, who was on official duty in Kampala to meet Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, proved fruitless.
His aides confirmed Mr Musyoka was engrossed in the South Sudan peace process aimed at ending political hostilities between President Silva Kiir and his former Vice-President Riak Machar and the formation of a Grand Coalition Government.
Ideally, the ex-Foreign Affairs minister’s engagements, courtesy of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), are partly responsible for his absence from Kibra’s electoral drama.
UNDECIDED
Also confirming Mr Musyoka’s busy schedule is his strong ally, Mr Wambua, who divulged to the Sunday Nation that the Wiper leader had been separately and repeatedly approached by National Super Alliance (Nasa) co-principals to support their candidates’ bid in the Kibra race.
“We have opted to stay out of the race strategically because we did not wish to antagonise our political partners. It was particularly difficult for Hon Musyoka to choose between candidates of Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford-Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula.
“These two are very close to him and so we decided to let the two brothers, who are both from western Kenya, to sort out their differences in Kibra first and thereafter look at the bigger picture ahead of 2022,” says the Kitui senator.
Nonetheless, political scientist Richard Bosire views Mr Musyoka as a politician who is not ready to declare his stand in a scenario where battle lines have been drawn.
This, he explains, is precisely why the former VP kept off the Kibra poll. “His style is to stay on the fence until things are clearly defined. He is not the type keen on defining a situation where things are murky, as was the Kibra elections,” observes Dr Bosire, who teaches at the University of Nairobi.
SHIFTING ALLIANCES
According to Dr Bosire, the Wiper leader seems to be beholden more to Mr Kenyatta than Mr Odinga, hence his reason to stay away from the polls and not support the candidate backed by the DP, who appears to have been antagonising the President.
The political scientist opines that Mr Musyoka also kept off in an effort to remain a neutral player among his competing Nasa colleagues.
“But this may not have been entirely prudent. Fence-sitting is not strategic in political contests. In this instance, it has given Musyoka’s opponents a chance to shine and undermine him politically,” he observes.
In fact, according to Dr Mutua, people are accusing him alongside Prof Kibwana and Ms Ngilu of undermining the Wiper leader, “either because of his continued absence from major political events or weakness in leadership”.
The shift of political alliances in the Ukambani region comes at a time when the Wiper leader is engaged in international assignments and against the backdrop of an electoral loss in Kitui last month.
ELECTIONS
A couple of days to the by-election in Mutonguni Ward, Mr Musyoka embarked on an intensive two-day campaign in the region accompanied by new Wiper chairman Chirau Mwakwere, Senator Wambua and several MPs from the region.
The leaders asked local residents not to embarrass the former VP at the ballot, but they did. The Wiper candidate lost to Maendeleo Chap Chap’s Musee Mati.
But dismissing the loss in his backyard as an “inconsequential setback”, Mr Wambua maintains Mr Musyoka remains the political kingpin in the area and that his presidential bid is on course.
“The three governors, who seem to have joined Raila, are doing so in pursuit of personal interests and not of the people of Ukambani. In fact, all the three are under investigations for (alleged) involvement in corruption and they are desperately associating with everyone, including Raila, who they believe can bail them out of their quagmire,” claims Mr Wambua.
However, Dr Mutua rejects this claim, explaining they have separately been cleared of any such corruption charges or allegations against them are yet to be confirmed.
Either way, former Machakos Senator Johnson Muthama says Mr Musyoka is gunning for nothing else but the presidency, “and we are presently strengthening our party, including reach out to new partners”.