Deputy President William Ruto will be on the horns of a dilemma when the report of the Building Bridges Initiative is released, but may be just preparing to pull a surprise that could catch both friend and foe off-guard.
Over the past one and a half years, the Deputy President has been the face of opposition to the initiative championed by President Uhuru Kenyatta and Opposition leader Raila Odinga, and will be aware that legions of supporters will be looking on him to lead the ‘No’ side if the BBI proposals lead to a constitutional referendum.
Dr Ruto however would be well aware that the last time senior government figures led a campaign against a referendum sponsored by the government they served in, there was an acrimonious parting of ways.
That was back in 2005 when Mr Odinga, then-Minister for Roads, Public Works and Housing, marshalled his LDP forces to oppose a contentious new Constitution pushed by President Mwai Kibaki’s wing of the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) government.
Mr Odinga’s ‘No’ campaign – allocated the Orange symbol by the Electoral Commission against the Banana for President Kibaki’s ‘Yes’ side – came out triumphant and the proposed constitution was rejected.
EXPLORING OPTIONS
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But the inevitable outcome was that President Kibaki finally moved to eject Mr Odinga and his supporters from the Cabinet, so that they could take their more comfortable positions on the Opposition benches.
The DP is wary at this stage of doing anything that would provoke a direct conflict with President Kenyatta and make his continued stay in government untenable, even though aware that under the present Constitution he cannot be sacked.
He was elected in his own right as President Kenyatta’s running mate, so the two remain tied at the hip unless one voluntarily quits or is impeached.
According to several sources in Dr Ruto’s inner circles, the DP’s strategists are working on several options for him once the BBI report is formally unveiled.
GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE
Although the contents remain a tightly-guarded secret and will not be made public until after the report is handed over to President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga, the DP’s team is confident it has a fairly good idea of the proposals, courtesy of a stream of leaks from within the BBI task force and secretariat.
The key and most contentious proposal, which would require a referendum, is a reshaping of the national governance structure by the return of a parliamentary system under a prime minister appointed from the majority party in the National Assembly as head of government.
The president would remain a popularly-elected head of State exercising largely ceremonial functions.
MERITS
It is expected that Dr Ruto would fiercely oppose such changes on the basis that they are designed to rob him the ultimate prize as front-runner for the 2022 presidential elections.
His supporters have also been loudly claiming the changes are geared towards providing a route for Mr Odinga to take over the reins of government without having to seek a universal mandate.
Contacted by the Saturday Nation, Dr Ruto, through his spokesman David Mugonyi, refused to engage on the matter.
However, several of his political strategists and allies, mostly speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that all options are open.
One of those who spoke on record was Kericho Senator Aaron Cheruiyot, who affirmed that the BBI report would not be automatically rejected but weighed on its merits.
“If it has proposals favourable to us and good for Kenya, why should we reject it?” he posed.
EXPANDED EXECUTIVE
What the Ruto camp is uncomfortable with, he explained, is talk of an expanded national executive and return of the Prime Minister and several deputies just to create positions for individuals.
Otherwise, he stressed, a parliamentary and presidential system are acceptable as long as they come with proper safeguards, adequate checks and balances and do not burden the people.
“Many of our Central Kenya friends favour retention of the presidential system,” he explained, “yet our pastoralist allies from North Eastern and other small marginalised groups such as the Kuria and the Sabaot prefer the parliamentary system.”
That creates challenges that must be negotiated in the spirit of give and take even within the Ruto camp.
Aware that he would be in a tricky situation fighting constitutional amendments backed by President Kenyatta, Dr Ruto’s strategists are working on a scenario where he abandons his apparent opposition to BBI and instead embraces the proposed changes.
VOTE BASKET
The reasoning is that whatever the BBI task force proposes will not expressly bar Dr Ruto from aiming for whatever office he fancies, and neither will it reserve any post for Mr Odinga.
He will therefore be prepared to gun for the premiership, whether it is by popular vote or as leader of the party with most seats in Parliament.
Guiding this thinking is that Dr Ruto does not want to appear to be fighting any Jubilee Party or government position that President Kenyatta may proclaim at a time he badly needs to inherit the populous Central Kenya support base.
He also needs to avoid friction that would irreparably split the united political formation that ensured victory for Jubilee in 2013 and 2017.
Strategists also reckon that a fiercely contested referendum could be highly divisive, posing the risk of ethnic tensions and violence.
ETHNIC VIOLENCE
With the benefit of past experience, especially in regard to unresolved tensions since the 2007 post-election violence that landed both Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto in the clutches of the International Criminal Court, the DP would be keen to avoid any actions that could excite passions in his Rift Valley base and place him in the cross-hairs.
The wily politician could therefore decide that it is wiser to change tack and instead of opposing the BBI proposals, join President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga in lending support that would virtually ensure an uncontested referendum.